20170828-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_1mb
报告摘要
China Cement Sector Summary
Core Content
The China cement sector has shown mixed performance in recent weeks, with national cement prices continuing to rise slightly and regional variations in price changes and shipment volumes. The report also discusses potential policy actions to address excess capacity and provides a detailed valuation and market share analysis of key cement companies.
Price Trends
- National Cement Prices: Increased by 0.1% week on week to RMB321.12/tonne.
- Regional Price Changes:
- Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei: Prices rose by RMB10-20/tonne.
- Henan, Tangshan, Guiyang: Prices surged by RMB30-50/tonne.
- Liaoning and Guangxi: Prices dropped by RMB10-30/tonne.
- Shipment Volume: Increased by 10% - 20% in East China, reaching 80% - 100% of the normal level. Other regions, such as North China, South Central China, and Southwest China, saw weaker performance due to unfavorable weather and environmental inspections.
- Inventory Level: The average inventory level (nationwide) decreased to 64.88%.
Coal Prices
- Coal Prices: Declined by 0.17% week on week to RMB581/tonne.
- Bohai-Rim Steam Coal (Q5500K): Comprehensive average price index dropped by RMB1/tonne to RMB581/tonne.
- Year-on-Year (YoY): Increased by 22.06%.
Policy and Capacity Closure
- Pilot Schemes: May be launched to encourage the closure of excess/obsolete capacity.
- Industry Sentiment: Leading enterprises believe large-scale implementation is unlikely in the near term due to funding constraints.
- Monitoring: The report suggests close monitoring of the effectiveness of any pilot schemes.
Stock Performance
- Cement Stocks under Coverage: Rose by 1.03% on average.
- Best Performer: Anhui Conch [0914.HK] increased by 5.25%.
- Weakest Performer: CR Cement [1313.HK] dropped by 3.95%, partly due to unfavorable weather in South China.
Valuation Table
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (HK$) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2016) | PER (2017E) | PER (2018E) | PBR (2016) | PBR (2017E) | PBR (2018E) | EV/EBITDA (2016) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2018E) | Net Debt/Equity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | HOLD | 29.05 | 19,341 | 15.9 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 1.75 | 1.55 | 1.46 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 6.1 | - |
| ONBM | 3323 HK Equity | HOLD | 4.88 | 3,378 | 24.6 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 0.52 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 8.5 | - |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | HOLD | 4.14 | 10,088 | 16.6 | 14.0 | 11.4 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 15.8 | 10.4 | 9.1 | - |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 4.38 | 3,668 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 1.10 | 1.08 | 1.01 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 | - |
| Simple Average | - | - | - | - | 18.1 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 7.6 | - |
| Weighted Average | - | - | - | - | 16.8 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 1.33 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 7.2 | - |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap (LC) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2016) | PER (2017E) | PER (2018E) | PBR (2016) | PBR (2017E) | PBR (2018E) | EV/EBITDA (2016) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2018E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | 29.05 | 19,341 | 15.9 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 1.75 | 1.55 | 1.46 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | 4.88 | 3,378 | 24.6 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 0.52 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 8.5 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | 4.14 | 10,088 | 16.6 | 14.0 | 11.4 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 15.8 | 10.4 | 9.1 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | 4.38 | 3,668 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 1.10 | 1.08 | 1.01 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| TCC International | 1136 HK Equity | 3.59 | 2,275 | 24.1 | 21.8 | 20.5 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 11.2 | 9.8 | - |
| China National Materials | 1893 HK Equity | 3.33 | 1,525 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 7.5 | 5.3 | - |
| Asia Cement | 743 HK Equity | 2.6 | 522 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 5.7 | 5.5 | - |
| West China Cement | 2233 HK Equity | 1.13 | 786 | 15.3 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 5.8 | 4.6 | - |
| Tianrui Cement | 1252 HK Equity | 2.43 | 915 | 17.4 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 9.1 | n.a. | - |
| Simple Average | - | - | - | 16.1 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 0.68 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 7.9 | 7.2 | - |
| Weighted Average | - | - | - | 17.0 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 1.25 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 10.5 | 7.6 | - |
Market Share by Region (2016)
| Region | Anhui Conch | CNBM | CR Cement | Shanshui | BBMG | TCCI | Asia Cement | WCC | Huaxin-Lafarge | Sinoma Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 44.9% | 40.2% | 10.9% | 51.7% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 42.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.9% |
| South Central China | 26.5% | 15.4% | 73.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| North China | 0.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 23.1% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Northeast China | 0.0% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southwest China | 20.2% | 32.0% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northwest China | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grand Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Key Information
- Price Stability: Cement prices have generally stabilized, with regional variations.
- Capacity Closure: Pilot schemes may be introduced to encourage closure of excess/obsolete capacity, though large-scale implementation is unlikely soon.
- Stock Performance: Anhui Conch outperformed, while CR Cement underperformed due to weather impact.
- Valuation Metrics: PER and PBR have declined over the forecast period, indicating potential undervaluation.
- Market Share: Anhui Conch and CNBM dominate in East China, while CR Cement and Shanshui have significant shares in South Central China.
Conclusion
The China cement sector is experiencing price stabilization with regional differences in performance. Excess capacity remains a concern, and pilot schemes might be introduced to address this. The report highlights valuation opportunities and market leadership by key players, with Anhui Conch leading in performance and CR Cement showing weaker results due to external factors. Investors are advised to monitor policy developments and consider regional dynamics when making investment decisions.
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