20160808-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_986kb

报告摘要

China Cement Weekly Summary - August 8, 2016

Core Content Overview

The China Cement Weekly report for August 8, 2016, provides an analysis of the cement sector's performance and outlook. Key highlights include price trends, inventory levels, coal prices, and stock valuations, with a focus on the potential impact of the G20 Summit on the market.

Main Points

Cement Price Trends

Cement prices continued to rebound nationwide, rising 1.3% week-on-week to RMB258.58/tonne.
Regional price movements:
- Henan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai: Prices increased by RMB20–30/tonne.
- Hunan: Prices declined by RMB20/tonne.
Market demand remained weak in early August due to unfavorable weather (high temperatures, rainfall, typhoons), with daily shipments at 60–70% of normal levels.
East China is expected to see a price increase in mid-August, driven by better regional production coordination in the Yangtze River Delta and improving weather conditions in late summer/early autumn.

Impact of G20 Summit

The G20 Summit in Hangzhou (August 31–September 5) is anticipated to boost cement prices in East China.
To ensure air quality, cement plants in Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Jiangxi will suspend production from August 24 to September 6, reducing supply and potentially increasing prices.

Coal Price Movement

Bohai-Rim Steam Coal (Q5500K) prices rose RMB6/tonne to RMB436/tonne, marking a 5.8% year-on-year increase.

Key Stock Performances

Cement stocks under coverage saw an average rise of 4.9%.
Best performer: BBMG (2009.HK), up 9.2%.
Weakest performer: CNBM (3323.HK), but still climbed 2.0%.

Valuation Table Highlights

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (US$m)	PER (x) 2015	PER (x) 2016E	PER (x) 2017E	PBR (x) 2015	PBR (x) 2016E	PBR (x) 2017E	EV/EBITDA (x) 2015	EV/EBITDA (x) 2016E	EV/EBITDA (x) 2017E	Net Debt/Equity (%)
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	BUY	21.40	13,326	15.4	11.9	11.7	1.41	1.29	1.20	8.2	6.5	6.1	4
ONBM	3323 HK Equity	HOLD	3.63	2,513	26.3	6.7	6.8	0.41	0.39	0.37	9.9	9.6	9.3	218
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	BUY	3.10	6,039	14.6	9.9	9.3	0.72	0.71	0.67	9.7	8.2	7.7	63
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	BUY	2.91	2,437	9.2	13.1	10.2	0.72	0.69	0.66	8.3	7.1	6.5	62
Simple average	-	-	-	-	16.4	10.4	9.5	0.81	0.77	0.72	9.0	7.9	7.4	87
Weighted average	-	-	-	-	15.7	11.0	10.4	1.06	0.99	0.93	8.7	7.3	6.9	47

EPS Growth and Valuation Metrics

Company	EPS Growth (%) 2016E	EPS Growth (%) 2017E	2015–2017E CAGR (%)	PEG (x) 2016E	PEG (x) 2017E	ROE (%) 2015	ROE (%) 2016E	ROE (%) 2017E	Dividend Yield (%) 2015
Anhui Conch	36.1	6.5	20.4	0.6	8.93	11.10	2.4	2.5	2.6
ONBM	315.0	2.4	106.1	0.1	1.49	5.80	1.2	2.0	2.2
CR Cement	(29.2)	28.6	(4.6)	(2.2)	7.51	6.66	2.7	1.7	2.2
BBMG	56.0	11.1	31.7	0.4	5.41	7.42	1.4	1.2	1.2
Simple average	94.5	12.2	38.4	(0.3)	5.84	7.51	2.0	1.9	2.0
Weighted average	63.3	9.4	29.5	0.2	7.15	9.19	2.1	2.1	2.1

Regional Cement Price and Inventory Insights

Regional Cement Price (Early August)

East China: Prices are expected to rebound in mid-August.
South Central China: Prices were relatively weak in early August.
North China: Prices remained stable.
Northeast China: Prices were generally stable.
Southwest China: Prices were relatively weak in early August.
Northwest China: Prices were stable.

Cement Inventory Level

National average inventory level stabilized at 71.13%.
Production restrictions in some areas helped maintain stable inventories.

Regional Clinker Capacity Breakdown (2015)

Region	Anhui Conch	CNBM	CR Cement	Shanshui	BBMG	TCCI	Asia Cement	WCC	Sinoma Group	Jidong	Huaxin
East China	44.8%	41.6%	11.6%	100.0%	5.1%	8.7%	0.0%	0.0%	12.8%	0.0%	0.0%
South Central China	26.4%	14.9%	71.6%	51.7%	4.8%	0.0%	25.1%	0.0%	10.5%	0.4%	0.0%
North China	8.7%	0.0%	7.7%	23.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.7%	12.6%	0.0%	17.4%	3.6%
Northeast China	7.1%	19.9%	0.0%	11.6%	0.8%	3.4%	0.0%	0.0%	5.8%	14.3%	0.0%
Southwest China	20.2%	31.3%	9.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.3%	1.4%	2.6%
Northwest China	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2015)

Region	Anhui Conch	CNBM	CR Cement	Shanshui	BBMG	TCCI	Asia Cement	WCC	Sinoma Group	Jidong	Huaxin
East China	17.7%	25.4%	1.4%	6.2%	0.0%	0.8%	1.2%	1.0%	3.6%	3.8%	8.2%
South Central China	12.1%	10.6%	10.1%	3.2%	1.8%	2.5%	1.2%	1.0%	0.0%	1.4%	2.6%
North China	0.0%	6.3%	1.9%	5.7%	12.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%
Northeast China	0.0%	21.0%	0.0%	11.6%	0.8%	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	5.8%	0.0%	0.0%
Southwest China	11.2%	26.8%	3.3%	3.2%	1.8%	2.5%	1.2%	1.0%	3.6%	3.8%	2.4%
Northwest China	7.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	18.3%	5.9%	0.0%

Disclaimer

This report is not intended for distribution to individuals or entities in jurisdictions where it would be illegal.
The report is issued by Galaxy International Securities and is based on reliable information sources.
No guarantees or warranties are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the report.
The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Interests Disclosure

China Galaxy Securities (6881.hk) is the holding company of China Galaxy International.
China Galaxy International may have financial interests in the companies discussed, potentially exceeding 1% of market cap.
Directors, officers, and employees may have roles or interests in the mentioned companies.

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