20180903-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_7mb

报告摘要

China Cement Sector Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the current state of the Chinese cement sector, focusing on price trends, company performance, and market share distribution across different regions. It also discusses the strategic cooperation between Conch Cement and CNBM, and includes valuation metrics and equity ratings for several cement companies.

Cement Price Trends

National Average Cement Price: Increased by 0.25% to RMB 403/tonne from the previous week.
Regional Price Increases: Observed in Tangshan (Hebei), northern part of Anhui, western part of Hubei, and Yunnan, with an increase of RMB 20–30/tonne.
No Major Region Recorded a Price Decrease.
Expected Price Rise: The Yangtze River Delta region is expected to see an increase of RMB 20–40/tonne in early September.
Inventory Level: The national average inventory level decreased slightly from 58.4% to 57.2% week-on-week, indicating a continued uptrend in cement prices due to low supply relative to demand.

Strategic Cooperation Between Conch and CNBM

Conch Cement has established more trading companies to coordinate cement sales across various regions.
This move aims to reduce internal competition caused by regional price differences, where cement was previously shipped from high-price to low-price regions.
These trading companies may also play a role in coordinating CNBM sales, which is expected to enhance supply-demand discipline in east China.

Equity Performance

Cement Stocks Under Coverage: Recorded an average drop of 3.1% last week.
Performance Variability:
- BBMG was the best performer with a 0.7% gain.
- CNBM was the weakest, dropping 9.9% week-on-week.
Equity Ratings:
- BUY for Conch Cement, CNBM, CR Cement, and BBMG.
- HOLD for BBMG due to a lack of clear catalysts for a price increase.

Valuation Table

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (US$m)	PER (2017)	PER (2018E)	PER (2019E)	EV/EBITDA (2017)	EV/EBITDA (2018E)	EV/EBITDA (2019E)	Net Debt Equity (%)
Conch Cement	914 HK Equity	BUY	47.80	29,833	14.8	7.9	7.6	8.8	5.0	4.8	Net Cash
CNBM	3323 HK Equity	BUY	7.34	7,937	9.8	5.2	5.1	11.2	6.4	6.1	123
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	BUY	2.92	5,210	9.3	6.6	6.1	10.7	8.0	7.7	82
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	BUY	9.16	8,200	16.8	7.6	7.4	10.5	5.3	5.5	3

Peer Comparison

Company	Market Cap (US$m)	PER (2017)	PER (2018E)	PER (2019E)	EV/EBITDA (2017)	EV/EBITDA (2018E)	EV/EBITDA (2019E)	PBR (2017)	PBR (2018E)	PBR (2019E)
Conch Cement	29,833	14.8	7.9	7.6	8.8	5.0	4.8	2.41	1.99	1.73
CNBM	7,937	9.8	5.2	5.1	11.2	6.4	6.1	0.74	0.71	0.63
BBMG	5,210	9.3	6.6	6.1	10.7	8.0	7.7	0.54	0.48	0.45
CR Cement	8,200	16.8	7.6	7.4	10.5	5.3	5.5	2.11	1.60	1.44
Simple Average	-	11.4	6.5	6.2	8.8	5.4	5.2	1.37	1.10	0.98
Weighted Average	-	13.5	6.9	6.6	9.4	5.2	5.9	1.86	1.47	1.29

Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2017)

Region	Anhui Conch	CNBM	CR Cement	Shanshui	BBMG	Asia Cement	WCC	Huaxin-Lafarge
East China	46.2%	35.1%	10.6%	49.6%	2.2%	5.3%	0.0%	0.0%
South Central China	20.0%	23.0%	8.2%	100.0%	5.0%	32.9%	5.3%	32.1%
North China	0.0%	5.4%	7.1%	100.0%	30.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northeast China	0.0%	22.3%	0.0%	100.0%	6.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwest China	7.5%	26.6%	0.0%	100.0%	6.0%	0.0%	8.2%	0.0%
Grand Total	11.0%	20.5%	3.6%	2.8%	5.5%	1.2%	1.0%	2.8%

Key Observations

Cement prices are rising across multiple regions, particularly in the eastern and western parts of China, driven by recovery in demand and low inventory levels.
The cooperation between Conch Cement and CNBM is aimed at enhancing coordination and reducing internal competition.
CNBM has underperformed compared to other cement stocks in the coverage, dropping 9.9%.
BBMG was the best performer with a 0.7% gain.
Valuation metrics such as PER and EV/EBITDA show varying levels of growth and expectations across companies.
Market share is concentrated among Conch Cement, CNBM, and CR Cement, with Anhui Conch and CNBM holding significant shares in east China.

Conclusion

The cement sector in China is showing signs of recovery and price increase, supported by improving weather conditions and low inventory levels. Strategic moves by Conch Cement and CNBM are expected to enhance supply-demand discipline and reduce internal competition. The market share and valuation data indicate that Conch Cement and CNBM are key players in the sector, with CNBM currently facing challenges in stock performance.