20201016-招银国际-安踏体育-02020.HK-A_stellar_golden_week_after_an_in-line_3Q_6页_1mb

报告摘要

CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an update on Anta Sports (2020 HK), highlighting its performance and valuation in the context of the broader China sportswear sector. The analysis includes operating numbers, financial summaries, and peer comparisons.

Key Highlights

3Q20 Performance

Retail sales growth were roughly in-line with expectations, with Anta and FILA showing LSD and 20-25% YoY growth respectively.
The 10-1 golden week was remarkable, with sales growth of 40%+ and 50%+ YoY for Anta and FILA, respectively.
Online sales were robust, with Anta and FILA achieving 50%+ and 90%+ growth, respectively.
Amer performance improved, with sales decline narrowing to -15% YoY, compared to -20% YoY in 1H20.
Management is optimistic about breakeven in 2H20E, driven by strong online and direct retail channels, and growth in China.

4Q20E and 1H21E Outlook

The report forecasts an astonishing revenue turnaround in 4Q20E and 1H21E.
Inventory levels were excessive in 3Q20E but were preparation for the golden week.
Inventory to sales ratio was 6-8 months, higher than the usual 4-5/6-7 months.

Valuation and Price Targets

Target Price (TP): HK$101.84 (unchanged from previous TP).
Current Price: HK$85.30.
Up/Downside: +19.4%.
Valuation: 27x FY21E P/E, which is considered attractive compared to peers such as Li Ning (38x), Nike (35x), Adidas (32x).
NP att. growth: 22% CAGR during FY19-22E.

Financial Summary

Revenue

FY18A: 24,100 RMB mn
FY19A: 33,928 RMB mn
FY20E: 36,030 RMB mn
FY21E: 44,331 RMB mn
FY22E: 51,789 RMB mn

Net Income

FY18A: 4,103 RMB mn
FY19A: 5,344 RMB mn
FY20E: 5,359 RMB mn
FY21E: 7,809 RMB mn
FY22E: 9,793 RMB mn

EPS

FY18A: 1.525 RMB
FY19A: 1.917 RMB
FY20E: 1.922 RMB
FY21E: 2.801 RMB
FY22E: 3.512 RMB

P/E

FY18A: 49.2
FY19A: 39.2
FY20E: 39.1
FY21E: 26.8
FY22E: 21.4

P/B

FY18A: 12.8
FY19A: 10.1
FY20E: 8.5
FY21E: 7.1
FY22E: 6.1

Yield

FY18A: 0.9%
FY19A: 0.8%
FY20E: 0.7%
FY21E: 2.4%
FY22E: 3.0%

ROE

FY18A: 27.8%
FY19A: 29.8%
FY20E: 24.4%
FY21E: 29.7%
FY22E: 31.7%

Peer Comparison

Company	Ticker	Rating	12m TP (LC)	Price (LC)	Up/Downside	Mkt Cap (HK$mn)	Year End	P/E (x)	P/B (x)	ROE (%)	3yrs PEG (x)	Yield (%)
Anta Sports	2020 HK	BUY	101.84	85.30	+19.4%	230,594	Dec-19	39.1	26.8	8.5	7.1	23.0
Li Ning Co	2331 HK	BUY	36.52	37.80	-3%	94,029	Dec-19	51.3	37.7	9.7	2.4	19.8
Xstep Intl	1368 HK	HOLD	2.70	2.60	+4%	6,551	Dec-19	11.3	8.1	0.8	3.9	5.4
361 Degrees Intl	1361 HK	NR	n/a	0.98	n/a	2,026	Dec-19	4.5	3.9	0.2	0.9	8.9
Topsports Intl	6110 HK	NR	n/a	11.00	n/a	68,213	Feb-20	24.6	19.1	5.0	1.6	2.0
Pou Sheng Intl	3813 HK	NR	n/a	1.85	n/a	9,910	Dec-19	20.9	7.8	1.1	3.9	0.6
China DX	3818 HK	NR	n/a	0.97	n/a	5,710	Mar-20	11.2	9.9	0.5	3.4	5.9

Key Assumptions

Segment	FY18A	FY19A	FY20E	FY21E	FY22E
Shoes	22.5%	32.2%	5.0%	21.0%	13.0%
Apparel	61.4%	45.5%	6.6%	25.0%	19.0%
Accessories	43.9%	47.5%	10.0%	6.0%	12.0%
Total	44.4%	40.8%	6.2%	23.0%	16.8%

Operating and Sales Trends

Anta's SSSG showed positive growth in 3Q20, with 10% growth, driven by e-commerce and marketing efforts.
Core brand growth was negative in 2Q20 but positive in 3Q20.
Kids segment growth was over 30% in 1Q17 and over 25% in 2Q17, but declined in 1Q20.
Online sales were over 50% in 1Q17 and over 40% in 1Q19, with over 50% growth in 3Q20.

Financial Ratios

Ratio	FY18A	FY19A	FY20E	FY21E	FY22E
Current Ratio	2.6	1.9	1.8	2.0	2.1
Quick Ratio	2.2	1.5	1.4	1.6	1.7
Cash Ratio	123	66	57	78	89
Inventory Turnover Days	93	105	115	105	107

Conclusion

The report maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$101.84.
Anta's 3Q20 performance was in-line but showed strong fundamentals, especially with the golden week performance.
Valuation at 27x FY21E P/E is seen as attractive compared to peers.
Inventory levels were excessive but were preparation for the holiday season.
Amer sales showed improvement, and China growth is expected to support future performance.
The management is confident in the revenue turnaround for 4Q20E and 1H21E.