20210114-招银国际-安踏体育-02020.HK-Look_beyond_the_volatility_and_focus_on_FY21E_8页_1mb
报告摘要
Anta Sports (2020 HK) Equity Research Summary
Core Content
Anta Sports is a leading Chinese sportswear company, and the report provides an update on its performance, outlook, and valuation. The research firm has maintained a BUY rating and raised the target price to HK$150.98, up from the previous HK$101.84. This reflects confidence in Anta's future growth, particularly in FY21E and FY22E, despite a slight miss in FY20E.
Main Points
- Current Valuation: The current P/E ratio for Anta is 31x FY22E, which is considered attractive compared to peers such as Li Ning (36x FY21E), Nike (32x FY21E), Adidas (27x FY21E), and Lululemon (44x FY21E).
- Target Price Rationale: The target price is based on a 36x FY22E P/E multiple, which was rolled over from the previous 32x FY21E.
- Net Profit CAGR: Anta is expected to achieve a 25% CAGR in net profit from FY19 to FY22E.
- Revisions: The FY20E, FY21E, and FY22E net profit forecasts have been revised up by 1%, 2%, and 5% respectively, factoring in faster online growth and DTC reform.
- DTC Reform: Anta is focusing on DTC reform to improve margins and unlock O2O potential, with expected improvements in the retail store efficiency and inventory management.
- Inventory and Discounts: In 4Q20E, Anta faced a slight miss in retail sales growth due to higher-than-expected discounts and trade fair sales order revisions, but the sales-to-inventory ratio improved to ~5 months, indicating better inventory management.
- Brand Restructuring: Anta is restructuring its brand to enhance product trendiness, fan engagement, and marketing, which is expected to drive growth in FY21E.
Key Financial Highlights
| Metric | FY18A | FY19A | FY20E | FY21E | FY22E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 24,100 | 33,928 | 36,521 | 46,339 | 54,039 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 44.4 | 40.8 | 7.6 | 26.9 | 16.6 |
| Net Income (RMB mn) | 4,103 | 5,344 | 5,427 | 7,922 | 10,290 |
| EPS (RMB) | 1.525 | 1.917 | 1.947 | 2.841 | 3.691 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 32.8 | 25.7 | 1.6 | 46.0 | 29.9 |
| P/E (x) | 75.0 | 59.7 | 58.8 | 40.3 | 31.0 |
| P/B (x) | 19.5 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| Yield (%) | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| ROE (%) | 26.0 | 26.6 | 22.7 | 26.3 | 28.3 |
| Net gearing (%) | Net cash | Net cash | Net cash | Net cash | Net cash |
Growth Initiatives
- Anta Brand Restructuring: Anta is expected to achieve 10%+ retail sales growth in FY21E, while FILA is projected to grow by 20%+.
- DTC Reform: The DTC reform is expected to gradually improve the margin, with the NP margin for the DTC unit projected to increase to LSD, MSD, and HSD in FY21E, FY22E, and mid-term, respectively.
- Online Growth: The online segment is expected to see significant growth, contributing to the overall performance.
Shareholding Structure
- Mr. Ding Shizhong (CEO) and Mr. Ding Shijia (V-Chairman) together hold 61.06% of the shares.
- Lai Shixian (CFO) & Family Free Float hold 38.94% of the shares.
Share Performance
| Period | Absolute | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 1-month | 18.6% | 11.3% |
| 3-months | 48.6% | 29.7% |
| 6-months | 81.6% | 65.7% |
| 12-months | 72.9% | 77.3% |
Earnings Revision
| Metric | New (RMB mn) | Old (RMB mn) | Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 36,521 | 36,030 | 1.4% |
| Gross Profit | 20,494 | 20,213 | 1.4% |
| EBIT | 8,518 | 8,410 | 1.3% |
| Net Profit | 5,427 | 5,359 | 1.3% |
| Diluted EPS (RMB) | 1.947 | 1.922 | 1.3% |
| Gross Margin | 56.1% | 56.1% | Oppt |
| EBIT Margin | 23.3% | 23.3% | Oppt |
| Net Profit Margin | 14.9% | 14.9% | Oppt |
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Rating | 12m TP (HK$) | Price (HK$) | Up/Downside | Mkt. Cap (HK$mn) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anta Sports | 2020 HK | BUY | 150.98 | 130.00 | +16.1% | 351,433 | 58.8 | 12.3 | 23.0 | 0.6 |
| Li Ning Co | 2331 HK | BUY | 36.52 | 49.25 | -26% | 122,590 | 63.8 | 12.0 | 19.8 | 0.4 |
| Xstep Intl | 1368 HK | BUY | 3.63 | 3.82 | -5% | 9,729 | 17.0 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 |
| 361 Degrees Intl | 1361 HK | NR | n/a | 1.29 | n/a | 2,667 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 6.4 |
| Pou Sheng Intl | 3813 HK | NR | n/a | 1.79 | n/a | 9,589 | 20.5 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 0.6 |
| Nike | NKE US | NR | n/a | 143.44 | n/a | 1,753,471 | 47.4 | 22.0 | 28.3 | 0.7 |
| Adidas | ADS GY | NR | n/a | 287.80 | n/a | 544,674 | 131.6 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 0.7 |
| Puma | PUM GY | NR | n/a | 88.78 | n/a | 126,445 | 163.5 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 0.2 |
| Lululemon | LULU US | NR | n/a | 353.77 | n/a | 357,546 | 77.0 | 19.1 | 29.2 | 0.0 |
| Skechers | SKX US | NR | n/a | 38.03 | n/a | 46,344 | 52.7 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
| Vf Corp | VFC US | NR | n/a | 86.37 | n/a | 261,198 | 65.4 | 14.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| Columbia | COLM US | NR | n/a | 93.38 | n/a | 47,943 | 65.8 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 0.3 |
| Wolverine | WWW US | NR | n/a | 33.30 | n/a | 21,192 | 37.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| Mizuno Corp | 8022 JP | NR | n/a | 2051.00 | n/a | 4,073 | n/a | 15.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Asics Corp | 7936 JP | NR | n/a | 1924.00 | n/a | 27,295 | n/a | 43.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
Conclusion
Anta Sports is expected to benefit from its brand restructuring and DTC reforms, which are anticipated to improve its performance and margins. The current valuation is considered attractive, and the target price reflects a positive outlook for the company's future growth. Investors are advised to look beyond the short-term volatility and focus on the long-term growth initiatives and improved inventory management.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
