20151210-三星证券-Securities_lending_and_short_selling_21页_2mb

Summary of Securities Lending and Short Selling in Korean Markets

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of securities lending balances (SLBs) and short selling activities in the Korean stock market, focusing on the Kospi and Kosdaq indices. It highlights trends in SLBs and short selling across different sectors and top stocks, and includes data on institutional net buying and short interest indicators.

Main Points

• Securities Lending Trends:

  • SLBs in both Kospi and Kosdaq have declined since December due to year-end effects, including dividend payouts, corporate fiscal year ends, and shareholder registry closures.
  • SLB for Kospi large caps has fallen to end-2014 levels, while Kospi mid-caps and Kosdaq large caps have seen significant drops to six-month and three-month lows respectively.
  • The decline in SLB is attributed to the repayment pressure of borrowed shares before year-end.

• Sector Analysis:

  • The healthcare sector has shown relatively stable SLB ratios, while the financials sector has seen a surge in short selling as a percentage of trading volume.
  • The IT/hardware sector has experienced a decline in SLB as a percentage of market cap.
  • SLB as a percentage of market cap has trended down in the steel, shipbuilding, and hotel and leisure sectors.

• Top Stocks:

  • Kospi Large Caps:
    • Highest absolute short interest: Korea Aerospace Industries, Hyundai Motor, and Daewoo International.
    • Large increases in lending: E-mart, BGF Retail, and LG Household & Healthcare.
    • High repayment pressure: Daelim Industrial, CJ Korea Express, and Hankook Tire Worldwide.
    • SLB as a percentage of free float hit a three-year high: Lotte Confectionery and Toray Chemical Korea.
  • Kospi Mid-Caps:
    • Highest absolute short interest: Hyundai Merchant Marine and Hanjin Shipping.
    • Large increases in lending: Meritz Securities, JB Financial Group, and Kumho Tire.
    • High repayment pressure: Samjin Pharm, Meritz Group, and Mando.
  • Kosdaq 100:
    • Highest absolute short interest: Seoul Semiconductor, Wonik IPS, and Celltrion.
    • High short selling: Korea Real Estate Investment Trust.

Key Information

• Short Interest Indicators:

  • Short interest is calculated as the ratio of 20-day average short interest to 5-day average short interest.
  • High short interest indicates potential for a stock to reach a top in a rising trend or face a pullback in a falling trend.
  • Short-interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of trading volume) shows greater short selling pressure for stocks with higher ratios.

• SLB Trends:

  • SLB as a percentage of market cap has shown a downward trend in December, particularly in the Kospi large caps and mid-caps.
  • The decline is more pronounced in the Kospi mid-caps and Kosdaq 100 indices.

• Top Stocks by SLB and Short Selling:

  • Kospi Large Caps:
    • High SLB as a percentage of outstanding shares: Samsung Heavy Industries, OCI, Hotel Shilla, and BNK Financial Group.
    • High short interest: KAI, BGF Retail.
    • High SLB: E-mart, BGF Retail, Daelim Industrial.
  • Kospi Mid-Caps:
    • High SLB as a percentage of outstanding shares: Kumho Tire, Meritz Securities.
  • Kosdaq 100:
    • High SLB as a percentage of outstanding shares: Seoul Semiconductor, Wonik IPS, and Celltrion.

• Institutional Net Buying:

  • Institutional net buying and short selling data for top stocks are provided, showing mixed trends with some stocks experiencing net buying and others net selling.

Summary Table

Sector Insights

• Healthcare: SLB ratio has held up relatively well compared to other sectors.
• Financials: Short selling as a percentage of trading volume has surged.
• Industrial Goods: Short selling has trended down.
• Steel & Materials: SLB as a percentage of market cap continues to trend down.
• Shipbuilding & Transportation: SLB as a percentage of market cap trends down toward year-end.
• Hotel & Leisure: SLB as a percentage of market cap edges down.

Conclusion

The document highlights the seasonal decline in SLBs due to year-end pressures, with notable variations across sectors and stocks. The financials sector shows increased short selling, while healthcare remains resilient. Institutional activity and short interest ratios are critical indicators for market sentiment and potential stock movements.