2017年-世界发展银行全球_Zambia_Jobs_Diagnostic___Analytics_74页_2mb

Zambia Jobs Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

This report, Zambia Jobs Diagnostic: Volume 1 - Analytics, is a comprehensive analysis of the labor market and employment trends in Zambia, with a focus on the challenges and opportunities in creating more and better jobs to support inclusive growth and reduce poverty.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Growth and Jobs

• Rapid Growth Without Poverty Reduction: Zambia experienced an average annual GDP growth of 7.3% between 2000 and 2014, but employment growth was much slower (2.81% per year). This indicates that growth has not been inclusive, and poverty reduction has been limited.
• Low Employment Elasticity: The employment elasticity of growth in Zambia (0.28) is significantly lower than that of comparable Lower Middle Income Countries (0.49), highlighting the inefficiency in job creation.
• Productivity Shifts: Labor productivity growth in Zambia came primarily from the shift of workers out of agriculture into services and industry, rather than from within sectors. However, productivity in agriculture and services remained stagnant.

Demographic and Labor Market Trends

• Youthfulness and Jobs: Zambia has one of the youngest populations in Africa, with a median age that will continue to favor economic growth as the dependency ratio declines.
• Demographic Transition: The country is experiencing a demographic transition, with labor moving out of rural agriculture and into urban-based services and industry. However, the majority of workers are still engaged in own-account agriculture.
• Underemployment and Inactivity: Underemployment and inactivity have increased, especially among youth and those in the service sector. The share of workers aged 15–64 in agriculture fell from 71% in 2008 to 33% in 2014, while the share in services increased from 21% to 36%.
• Formal Employment: The share of waged jobs in the working-age population increased from 17% to 29%, with private sector waged work rising from 12% to 21%. However, the majority of new urban-based jobs are in the informal sector.

Inequality and Productivity Gaps

• Widening Inequality: There are significant gaps in productivity and earnings between formal and informal workers, rural and urban workers, and skilled and unskilled workers.
• Gender Wage Gap: Women earn about 20% less than men, though this gap has narrowed slightly over time. Experience is more important than gender for employment decisions, but gender strongly influences the type of work and earnings.

Firm Dynamics and Employment

• Informal Sector Dominance: The majority of firms (68%) are informal, and they are smaller, younger, and less productive than formal firms.
• Formal Firms and Employment: Formal firms are more productive and account for 72% of employment in establishments, despite being a smaller share of firms.
• Sectoral Concentration: Firms and jobs are concentrated in the central corridor (Copperbelt to Lusaka), with significant presence in services, and to a lesser extent, in industry and manufacturing.
• Agro-Based Firms: Agro-based firms are more geographically diverse than other sectors, which are concentrated around Lusaka and the Copperbelt. These firms have the potential to drive economic diversification and job creation.

Policy Recommendations

• Targeted Sectoral and Regional Policies: To harness the demographic dividend, Zambia needs to implement targeted policies focusing on vulnerable groups, particularly poor women and youth.
• Promote Formal Employment: There is a need to increase the number of formal sector jobs, especially in secondary towns and Lusaka.
• Improve Productivity in Informal Sectors: Efforts should be made to enhance the productivity of informal jobs, particularly in smallholder farming and agro-processing.
• Support Agro-Value Chains: Job creation should be linked to agro-value chains and cross-border export trade to improve rural employment and productivity.

Key Findings

• Agriculture as a Double-Edged Sword: Agriculture remains the primary source of employment for the poor, but its low productivity is a major barrier to poverty reduction. However, commercial farming and agro-processing are expanding and could become a key driver of job creation.
• Spatial Analysis: Poverty clusters are concentrated in the eastern and northern provinces, with high potential for agro-based job growth.
• Dual Economy Structure: The country exhibits a dual economy structure, with formal and informal sectors and regional disparities.
• Investment Climate: The investment climate is relatively good, but there are challenges in firm survival and productivity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

Conclusion

Zambia's economic growth has not translated into meaningful job creation or poverty reduction. A jobs strategy is essential to ensure inclusive growth and capitalize on the demographic dividend. The focus should be on promoting formal employment, improving productivity in the informal sector, and leveraging agro-based industries to create more and better jobs.