2011年-世界发展银行全球_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Economic_Developments_and_Prospects_September_2011___Investing_for_Growth_and_Jobs_70页_5mb

Summary of MENA Economic Developments and Prospects, September 2011

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the economic developments and prospects in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for 2011 and 2012, with a focus on investment and job creation. It is prepared by the World Bank and highlights the interplay between macroeconomic performance, investment trends, and employment outcomes.

Main Views

1. Growth Outlook for 2011

• Economic growth in the MENA region is expected to average 4.1% in 2011, 0.5 percentage points higher than the May forecast.
• The improved growth outlook is attributed to:
  • Increased public spending boosting regional demand.
  • Higher oil production in most oil-exporting countries.
  • A quicker-than-expected rebound in industrial production in Egypt.
  • Positive effects of subsidy reform in Iran, which also led to efficiency gains.

2. Fiscal Outlook for 2011

• The fiscal outlook for 2011 is worse than expected.
• The fiscal balance is expected to deteriorate, with the exception of some countries like the GCC.
• Countries with limited fiscal space, such as Morocco and Jordan, have expanded social programs at the expense of public investment.

3. Risks to the Outlook

• A global slowdown is expected to reduce oil production and prices, leading to a growth deceleration of 3.8% in 2012.
• Political uncertainty in the region continues to pose risks to investment and economic activity.
• In countries affected by unrest, risk premiums have risen, and private investment and growth have declined.

4. Investment and Growth

• Public investment has been the dominant source of investment in the region, especially in developing oil exporters.
• While public investment has supported growth, there are concerns about its effectiveness in stimulating private investment.
• Investment efficiency in the MENA region is lower than in other regions, as indicated by ICORs (Incremental Capital Output Ratios).
• FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) has played a key role in job creation, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

5. Job Creation and Employment

• The pace of job creation in the MENA region has been faster than income growth compared to other middle-income countries in the 2000s.
• However, job creation is slower in oil-importing countries than in oil-exporting ones.
• Informal employment is widespread in developing MENA countries, often providing low-productivity jobs.
• The government services sector has been a major employer, but its contribution to GDP is limited and it has not supported job or income growth in recent years.
• In contrast, the oil sector contributes significantly to GDP but not to employment.

6. Key Sectors for Growth and Jobs

• Services sectors have been a strong driver of both income and employment growth, especially in oil-importing countries.
• Manufacturing has contributed to growth and job creation, although it remains relatively small in the region compared to countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey.
• FDI-related jobs are largely generated in the manufacturing sector, despite only receiving about one-fifth of total FDI inflows.

7. Investment Efficiency and Rule of Law

• The report emphasizes the importance of strong rule of law and good governance for investment efficiency and attracting private investment.
• In countries with adequate property rights protection, accountability, and legal institutions, public investment is strongly linked to growth.
• Investment recovery after political transitions is delayed, taking at least 5 years to return to pre-transition levels.

Key Information

• The region is divided into three groups for analysis: GCC oil exporters, developing oil exporters, and oil importers.
• The Arab Spring has led to political and macroeconomic instability, affecting investment and growth.
• Investment recovery is slower than economic recovery, especially in countries with political transitions.
• Public investment in the GCC has not been significantly affected due to its dominant role, but faces risks such as anemic credit growth and implementation challenges.
• FDI is a major source of investment in the region, but its impact on employment is limited unless it is directed towards manufacturing.
• The job creation problem in the MENA region is not solely due to a slow pace of job creation relative to growth but also due to sectoral imbalances and informal employment.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for improving governance, enhancing investment efficiency, and reorienting investment towards sectors that can generate both growth and employment, particularly manufacturing and services. It also highlights the importance of rule of law and accountability in fostering sustainable growth and job creation in the region.