2008年-世界发展银行全球_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Economic_Developments_and_Prospects_2008___Regional_Integration_for_Global_Competitiveness_160页_2mb

2008 Economic Developments and Prospects in the MENA Region

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the economic developments and prospects for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during 2007 and into the early 2008 period, with a focus on regional integration and structural reforms. It outlines the performance of the region, the impact of global economic conditions, and the implications for future growth and competitiveness.

Main Points

1. Recent Economic Outcomes and Short-Term Prospects

• Growth Performance: The MENA region experienced an average GDP growth of 5.7% in 2007, marking the fifth consecutive year of growth exceeding 5%. This outperformed the 1990s and early 2000s. Similar growth rates (around 5.6%) are expected for the next three years.
• Growth Drivers:
  • Resource-Poor Economies: These economies saw growth driven by domestic consumption, government spending, and investment.
  • Resource-Rich Economies: Growth was influenced by hydrocarbon exports, especially from Iran and Algeria, which saw a rebound in output.
• External Sector Developments:
  • Oil Prices: Global oil prices surged by 78% in 2007, reaching over $100 per barrel in early 2008. This supported export revenues and government spending.
  • FDI: FDI inflows were around $45 billion in 2007, down from $52 billion in 2006. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE became the largest recipients.
  • Remittances and Tourism: Remittances and tourism were significant contributors to the region’s economy, especially for non-oil exporting countries.
• Food Price Shock:
  • Impact: Sharp increases in food prices, particularly staple grains like rice and wheat, had varying effects across the region. Non-GCC countries like Yemen and Djibouti were most affected, with food inflation exceeding 20% in Yemen.
  • Policy Response: Governments in the region, especially those with high food subsidies, faced fiscal pressures. The document highlights the need for policy adjustments to manage these impacts.
• Global and Regional Risks:
  • Financial Turbulence: While the region initially mirrored emerging markets, GCC countries like Egypt and Morocco outperformed the MSCI EM index.
  • Future Outlook: Growth is expected to remain robust in 2008 at 5.9% and stabilize at 5.6% and 5.3% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. However, external and fiscal balances may face pressure due to high food prices and continued reliance on subsidies.

2. Regional Integration for Global Competitiveness

• Trade Integration:
  • Formal Agreements: The region has a number of trade agreements, including the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement (GAFTA), which is being implemented.
  • Barriers: High non-tariff barriers (NTBs) and inefficiencies in trade procedures and logistics have hindered trade integration.
  • Intra-Regional Trade: Despite formal agreements, intra-regional trade remains low compared to other economic blocs like NAFTA and ASEAN.
• Services Integration:
  • Services Exports: Services exports, especially tourism, have been a key component of the region’s economy.
  • GATS Commitments: The region’s stance on services trade reform is reflected in GATS commitments, though progress remains limited.
• Labor Mobility:
  • Migration Trends: Significant intraregional migration has occurred, especially from non-GCC to GCC countries. Remittances have been a major source of income for some countries.
  • Policy Concerns: National governments are concerned about the impact of migration on employment and social stability.
• Capital Flows:
  • FDI and Stock Markets: FDI inflows and stock market developments have been growing, though there is a need for more openness in financial markets.
  • GCC Outflows: The GCC countries are major sources of FDI outflows, with over 10% directed to other MENA countries.
• Infrastructure Integration:
  • Energy and Transport: There are ongoing efforts to interconnect electricity grids, build cross-border gas pipelines, and improve transport links, including roads, rail, and air.
  • Telecommunications: The region has seen progress in telecommunications infrastructure, with cross-border investments and regulatory cooperation.

3. Structural Reforms for Long-Term Growth

• Trade Reforms:
  • Progress: Trade policy reforms have been implemented, though the trade policy index has declined in some countries.
  • Challenges: High import tariffs and restrictive NTBs remain barriers to trade.
• Business Climate Reforms:
  • Improvements: Business climate indices have improved in some countries, indicating progress in regulatory reforms.
  • Targeted Policies: Industrial policies have been targeted, but their impact on growth is still being assessed.
• Governance Reforms:
  • Public Sector Accountability: Progress in governance reforms is evident, particularly in improving the quality of public administration and enhancing accountability.
  • Reform Index: The business reform index and public administration index have shown improvement, but more work is needed to sustain competitiveness.

Key Information

• Growth Trends:
  • The region’s average GDP growth in 2007 was 5.7%, with per capita growth at 3.8%.
  • Investment accounted for over 100% of real GDP growth, offset by negative net exports.
• Inflation:
  • Inflation increased due to rising energy and food costs, especially in GCC countries due to the fixed dollar peg.
  • Food inflation reached over 20% in Yemen, while energy inflation remained high due to oil prices.
• FDI:
  • FDI inflows were $45 billion in 2007, with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE being the top recipients.
  • FDI is heavily oriented toward real estate and energy sectors, raising concerns about inflation and employment impacts.
• Regional Integration:
  • The region has a growing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs), but trade remains low compared to potential.
  • Infrastructure projects such as power grid interconnections and gas pipelines are being developed to enhance integration.
  • Regulatory cooperation in telecommunications and financial markets is advancing through initiatives like the Arab Network for Regulators (ARNET).

Conclusion

The MENA region has demonstrated strong economic performance in 2007, driven by hydrocarbon revenues, investment, and remittances. However, challenges such as high food and energy prices, limited trade integration, and structural reform needs persist. Regional integration, particularly through trade, services, labor mobility, and infrastructure, is seen as a critical pathway to enhancing competitiveness and fostering sustainable growth. Continued reform efforts in trade, business climate, and governance are essential for the region to maintain its growth trajectory and address the long-term implications of global economic trends.