2025-06-16-IMF-吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国_2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告（英）_83页_3mb

IMF Country Report No. 25/118: Kyrgyz Republic - Key Summary

Executive Summary

The Kyrgyz Republic demonstrated strong economic resilience amid global uncertainties, achieving robust growth (9%+ annually since 2022), stable inflation, and declining public debt. IMF recommendations emphasize rebuilding policy buffers, enhancing fiscal sustainability, preserving monetary policy independence, and advancing structural reforms to support inclusive and resilient growth. Medium-term risks include external vulnerabilities, geopolitical developments, and potential fiscal challenges from large infrastructure projects.

Key Economic Performance

• Growth: High growth (9%+) driven by trade, remittances, and domestic demand, but expected to moderate to 6.8% in 2025 and converge to 5.3% long-term.
• Inflation: Core inflation declined to 6% by March 2025, staying within the central bank’s target range of 5-7%.
• Debt: Public debt fell to 36.6% of GDP in 2024, supported by strong GDP growth and fiscal surpluses.
• External Sector: Current account deficit narrowed due to re-export moderation; external reserves reached 2.3 months of imports.

Policy Recommendations

1. Fiscal Policy:
   • Strengthen revenue collection, reduce tax exemptions, increase PIT progressivity, and contain the wage bill.
   • Optimize expenditure, including energy subsidies, and transfer Kumtor profits to the budget.
2. Monetary Policy:
   • Tighten interest rates and liquidity conditions if inflation persists. Lift interest rate caps, enhance exchange rate flexibility, and discontinue gold purchases by the central bank.
3. Structural Reforms:
   • Enhance fiscal transparency, governance, SOE management, competition policy, labor market flexibility, and climate adaptation.
   • Accelerate reforms for private sector-led growth and inclusive policies.

Fiscal Position Overview

• The fiscal deficit is projected to moderate from a deficit in 2025 onward, with a focus on long-term fiscal sustainability and debt management.
• The authorities aim to create fiscal space through tax reforms, spending optimization, and seeking concessional financing.

Key Risks

• External risks from geopolitical tensions (e.g., conflicts in the Middle East or Ukraine), potential tightening of U.S. sanctions on Russia, and gold price volatility.
• Medium-term fiscal risks from large infrastructure investments (e.g., the China-Kyrgyz-Uzbekistan railway and Kambarata HPP) and dependence on re-export trade.

Data and Transparency

• Staff welcomes efforts to improve fiscal and financial data quality but cautions ongoing issues with balance of payments reporting.
• TA support offered to enhance PFM, data standards, and statistical capacity.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic has significant policy space to address medium-term challenges, but risks associated with external vulnerabilities and fiscal sustainability necessitate timely reforms and policy buffers to ensure resilience and inclusive growth.