2024-05-05-国民经济研究局-国民经济研究局-消费金融财政刺激_来自中国数字优惠券的证据（英）_61页_11mb

This paper analyzes the use of government-issued digital coupons as a fiscal stimulus in China during the COVID-19 recession. The key findings are:

1. Reduced-Form Empirical Analysis: Using data from a large e-commerce platform and a bunching estimator approach:

   • Digital coupons led to a large increase in consumer spending, estimated at 3.1-3.3 times the government's fiscal cost (spending boost per yuan of coupon value).
   • These effects were persistent for several months.
   • No substantial substitution effects were observed from coupons to non-targeted spending categories or total spending across the platform.
   • Minimal intertemporal substitution was found (no significant reduction in spending immediately after the coupons were distributed to offset the initial boost).
   • The results are robust to different estimation methods and hold even for coupons that were randomly assigned.

2. Theoretical Model: A dynamic consumer spending model rationalizes these large MPC estimates:

   • The core mechanism is the "notch" created by the low spending threshold required to receive the coupon discount.
   • Consumers need to increase spending (in the targeted category) above the threshold to utilize the coupon, boosting their utility beyond what they would get from an equivalent cash transfer.
   • This structure encourages expenditure concentration in the targeted sectors, making coupons a cost-effective tool for stimulating specific parts of the economy.

Conclusion:

• Government-issued digital coupons represent a novel and potentially effective form of fiscal stimulus.
• Compared to cash, coupons have large spending multipliers due to behavioral responses to the deliberate spending thresholds, making them attractive for targeted sector recovery efforts.
• The effectiveness stems from directing consumer spending towards specific economic sectors without requiring a change in income, relying instead on optimizing behavior at the coupon threshold.
• Future research should explore MPC estimates for cash transfers relevant to China, model take-up and redemption dynamics, and compare the attractiveness of notches versus linear subsidies under varying consumer heterogeneity.