《2023年亚洲发展展望（七月版）》-10页_211kb

Asian Development Outlook July 2023 Summary

Analysis

The report updates economic growth and inflation forecasts for developing Asia based on April 2023 projections, incorporating recent developments including global demand slowdowns and regional progress.

Overview Growth and Inflation

• Aggregate growth for developing Asia remains at 4.8% for 2023, revised down slightly to 4.7% for 2024.
• Inflation is expected to ease further, reaching 3.6% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024 region-wide.
• Most central banks in the region have kept policy rates steady amid easing inflation and more moderate U.S. monetary tightening, with hints of shifting toward easing policies.

Subregional Forecast Changes

1. Southeast Asia: Growth forecast revised down to 4.6% for 2023 (from 4.7%) and 4.9% for 2024 (from 5.0%). Decline attributed to weaker global demand for manufactured exports, particularly affecting electronics and semiconductors, though domestic demand supports growth.
2. Caucasus and Central Asia: Forecast revised down to 4.3% for 2023 (from 4.4%) and 4.4% for 2024 (from 4.6%). Decline driven by unexpectedly sharp falls in Azerbaijani oil production despite higher prices.
3. East Asia: Maintains 4.6% growth for 2023 and 4.2% for 2024. Forecast unchanged despite downward revisions for Republic of Korea and Taiwan, China, offset by a strong rebound in Hong Kong, China growth.
4. South Asia: Growth forecast revised slightly down to 6.1% for 2024 (from 6.0%). Maintains 5.5% growth for 2023, though revisions for Pakistan and Nepal drag down the forecast, offset by better-than-expected net exports in Bangladesh.

Other Notes

• Services-led Growth: Recovering services, particularly in the People's Republic of China (PRC), India, and Hong Kong, China, drove early 2023 growth.
• Inflation Moderation: Headline inflation continues to ease towards pre-pandemic averages, though core inflation remains elevated in some East Asian economies.
• Monetary Policy: Reflects a cautious approach; rates have held steady while many central banks monitor inflation trends closely.
• Risk Factors: Upside/downside risks are balanced, shaped by U.S./global interest rates. Key risks include potential financial stability issues, geopolitical tensions exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict, climate disruptions (including possible El Niño conditions), and external demand vulnerability.

The outlook acknowledges the moderating impact of global demand but highlights resilience from domestic drivers and ongoing recovery efforts, particularly in specific economies and sectors.