2025-06-12-花旗集团-CAR_Group_Ltd（CAR）_CAR集团有限公司（CAR.AX）_5月巴西二手车销售增长加速_10页_250kb

Citi Research report for CAR Group Ltd (CAR.AX) highlights acceleration in Brazil's used vehicle sales, rising from +13% year-over-year in May 2025 (compared to April 2024's +13% yoy) to +28% yoy, driven partly by favorable parking control point (PCP) figures. This positive trend supports growth for Webmotors, with Citi forecasting 28% year-over-year growth in constant currency terms for the second half of 2025, slightly slower than the first half's 30% yoy.

Valuation is set at a 12-month target price of A$42.00 (or US$36.60), derived from a blended approach combining DCF (discounted cash flow) at A$39.04 and SOTP (sum of the parts) at A$38.65, using a WACC of 9.1%. The valuation applies weighted-average premiums to business segments—Australian core (25x EBITDA, 35% premium to global peers), Trader Interactive (19x, in line), and Webmotors (27.8x, 50% premium)—reflecting strong growth outlooks.

Key risks include demand fluctuations for automotive and related products, challenges from acquisitions, FX exposure due to higher interest rates, operational disruptions from security breaches or employee losses, and potential structural changes in the classified business.

The company’s market cap is A$13,830 million (US$8,990 million), with an expected 14.8% dividend yield and 17.0% total return over 12 months. Citi's investment grade is "Buy," driven by positive sales trends, though risks could hinder target attainment if unmitigated.

12-month price target update noted, with financial disclosures indicating potential conflicts of interest due to the firm's business dealings, as standard for Citi-disseminated research.