2025-06-11-花旗集团-超级循环有限公司（SLC）_Superloop_Ltd（SLC.AX）_我们会进入升级周期吗_22页_960kb

报告摘要

Superloop Ltd (SLC.AX) Summary

Core Content and Outlook

Superloop Ltd (SLC.AX) is positioned for potential growth and improved financial performance, with Citi Research suggesting an upgrade cycle may be in the works. The company is expected to benefit from increased net-adds and improved EBITDA as it proactively adjusts pricing ahead of NBN wholesale price changes. Citi maintains a Buy rating and raises its target price to A$3.35, implying an expected share price return of 16.7%.

Key Financial Forecasts

Metric	2023A	2024A	2025E	2026E	2027E
Sales (A$m)	322.2	416.6	549.0	644.7	729.8
EBIT (A$m)	-31.7	-17.0	8.9	26.9	43.3
Core Net Profit (A$m)	-8.2	1.4	10.3	16.1	28.2
Core EPS (A¢)	-1.7	0.3	2.0	3.2	5.5
EBITDA (Adj) (A$m)	37.4	54.3	85.9	104.8	123.1
Net Debt (A$m)	24.7	8.7	-21.7	-79.0	-154.7
Free Cash Flow (A$m)	24.2	30.1	38.2	60.1	78.4

EBITDA Forecasts

FY25 EBITDA Forecast: A$86mn (at the top end of guidance range)
FY26 EBITDA Forecast: A$105mn (up 1% from FY25)
FY27 EBITDA Forecast: A$123mn (up 5% from FY26)

Net-Adds and Market Trends

ORG net-adds: Estimated to average ~8,400 per month in 2H FY25, with a ~16,000 increase for the year.
Churn: Post-price hike announcement, churn has trended lower than prior periods.
Smart Communities: Expected to add ~10,000 secured lots, leading to ~A$6.5-7.5mn incremental revenue with a ~60-70% gross margin.
Wholesale customers: Excluding ORG, expected to rise by ~7% HoH, reaching ~45,800.

Pricing Strategy

SLC Consumer Plans: Raised prices by ~4% on average, with some plans seeing higher increases.
Exetel Consumer Plans: Raised prices by ~7% on average, with SLC matching Exetel’s pricing.
Business Plans: SLC has cut prices across the board, especially on higher speed tiers, to compete in the market.
NBN Wholesale Price Uplift: Expected to be ~2.4% over 12 months, with SLC’s price hikes ahead of this uplift.

Competitive Positioning

vs Incumbents (TLS, Optus, Vodafone, iPrimus): SLC’s pricing remains attractive for lower speed tiers but less so for higher tiers.
vs Challengers (Belong, Buddy, Tangerine, Mate): SLC’s plans are generally more expensive than these competitors across most speed tiers.
Market Share: SLC is seeing an uptick in customers moving to higher speed tiers (e.g., 100Mbps or faster), which is in line with the overall market trend.

Valuation and Ratios

Target Price (TP): A$3.35
Current Price: A$2.87
PE Ratio (2026E): 91.1
EV/EBITDA (2026E): 52.8
FCF Yield (2027E): 5.3%
Payout Ratio: 0.0% for all periods

Summary of Main Points

SLC is leading in price hikes ahead of NBN’s wholesale price changes, which may help it gain market share in higher speed tiers.
Net-adds remain strong, with early signs of improvement post-price hike.
The company is expected to benefit from the ORG contract and Smart Communities projects.
Financial performance is projected to improve, with EBITDA forecasts increasing slightly in FY26 and FY27.
Valuation is expected to roll forward with a higher multiple due to solid progress in organic growth.
SLC has flexibility in its balance sheet to pursue inorganic growth opportunities.

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