20180607-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_494kb

报告摘要

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	18E (%)	19E (%)	P/E (18E)	P/E (19E)
HSI	0.5	4.2	4.5	42.3	10.4	12.2	11.1
HSCEI	0.2	2.7	4.9	24.0	10.4	8.3	7.5
MXCN	0.6	5.8	7.9	57.1	15.6	13.6	11.7
SHSZ300	-0.2	0.1	-4.8	35.5	15.1	12.8	11.1
SHCOMP	0.0	-0.7	-5.8	40.2	13.5	12.2	10.8
SZCOMP	0.1	-2.4	-6.3	76.1	23.1	19.4	15.8
INDU	1.4	3.2	1.7	40.3	8.8	16.5	15.2
SPX	0.9	3.7	3.7	46.1	10.0	17.4	15.8
CCMP	0.7	5.8	11.4	82.0	15.4	23.2	20.1
UKX	0.3	1.9	0.3	167.6	6.0	14.0	13.2
NYK	0.8	1.5	0.2	61.1	15.0	16.6	14.5

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	425.0	1.19	54.7	1.54
1398 ICBC	6.6	-0.15	16.9	0.63
939 CCB	8.1	-0.12	20.9	0.70
857 PETROCHINA	6.6	2.98	83.7	2.98
5 HSBC	76.5	0.00	49.4	1.29
941 CHINA MOBILE	72.6	0.35	46.5	0.67
2318 PING AN	79.4	-0.19	35.5	6.93
3988 BANK OF CHINA	4.2	-0.24	6.7	0.83
386 SINOPEC	7.6	-0.53	33.3	1.22
1299 AIA	73.1	1.46	9.4	-1.46

Performance in May: The coal sector index declined by 2.9%, underperforming SHCOMP and CSI300 by 3.4pp and 4.1pp respectively.
Demand Side: Daily consumption at power plants remained high, with a 20-30% YoY increase. Re-stocking demand is expected to rise.
Supply Side: Production capacity cuts and safety checks are ongoing, leading to tighter supply. Coal production in April 2018 rose by 4.1% YoY.
Prices: Thermal coal prices rebounded, with FOB prices at Qinhuangdao port reaching Rmb640/tonne (up 8.66% YoY). Coking coal prices remained stable, while anthracite prices declined.
Outlook for June: Thermal coal prices are expected to rise due to increased demand and low inventory levels. Coking coal prices are likely to remain flat. Anthracite prices may rebound due to downstream demand and thermal coal price increases.
Valuation: The coal sector is considered undervalued, with leaders such as Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH), Lu'an Environmental Energy Development (601699 CH), and Yang Quan Coal Industry (600348 CH) highlighted for their cheap valuations.

Box Office: China's overall box office in May reached Rmb4.317bn, up 10.81% YoY and 10.39% MoM. Excluding e-commerce fees, it was Rmb4.027bn.
Top Films: Avengers: Infinity War, How Long Will I Love U, and Us and Them were the top contributors, accounting for 77.9% of the total box office.
Future Releases: Animal World and imported films like Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's Treasure Island are expected to perform well in June.
TV Dramas: Urban romance and period dramas dominated the TV landscape. Jumei Yingshi's Here to Heart and The Legend of Jade Sword were among the top-rated shows.
Production Filings: In April 2018, 110 domestic dramas and 348 films were filed for production, indicating a growing content pipeline.
Key Events: SAPPRFT mandated content rectification, Maoyan partnered with Tencent for derivative content, and Zhang Yimou joined Huanxi Media Group for online drama production.

Positive: Coal sector is expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 10%.
Neutral: Media & Internet sector is expected to outperform the benchmark by between -10% and 10%.

Buy: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%.
Accumulate: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
Hold: Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%.
Underperform: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%.

Coal Sector: Weaker-than-expected economic growth, declining demand, supply-side reform falling short, and greater-than-expected coal price drops.
Media & Internet: Film & TV content policy risk, box office growth below expectations, and competition from content concentration.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of this report.
Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.