BMI-2017年三季度澳大利亚农业报告（英文）-20176-98页

Australia Agribusiness Report Summary (Q3 2017)

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive overview of Australia's agribusiness sector, including 5-year forecasts up to 2021. It outlines the performance and outlook of key commodities such as grains, sugar, dairy, and livestock, along with structural trends, risks, and opportunities. The analysis also touches on the competitive landscape, demographic forecasts, and the role of trade and infrastructure in shaping the sector's future.

Main Viewpoints

• Export Growth: Australia's agribusiness exports are expected to increase, driven by high-quality production, reliable supply, and strong external demand. However, rising production costs and competition from lower-cost producers will challenge this growth.
• Climate Vulnerability: The sector faces increasing risks from extreme weather events, which are expected to become more frequent due to climate change.
• Investment Needs: There is a clear need for investment in the supply chain, particularly in transport and storage infrastructure, to maintain competitiveness and efficiency.
• Trade Agreements: Australia has signed several Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with key markets like Japan, China, and South Korea, which are expected to help sustain its position in the global market.

Key Forecasts

• Beef Production: Expected to grow by 11.4% to 2.4 million tonnes by 2020/21, with a recovery anticipated in 2018.
• Cheese Production: Projected to increase by 8.8% to 375,000 tonnes by 2020/21, driven by strong demand from Asian markets.
• Poultry Consumption: Forecast to grow by 19.7% to 1.33 million tonnes by 2021, with per capita consumption rising to 50 kg in 2020 from 39 kg in 2010.
• Agribusiness Market Value: Increased to USD43.66bn in 2017, up from USD35.74bn in 2016, with an expected annual growth of 6.0% through 2021.
• Economic Indicators:
  • 2017 Real GDP Growth: 2.1%, down from 2.5% in 2016.
  • 2017 CPI Growth: 1.7%, up from 1.3% in 2016, with an expected average of 2.4% through 2021.
  • 2017 Central Bank Policy Rate: 1.50%, expected to average 2.30% through 2021.

Structural Trends

1. Maintaining Global Share of Exports

• Australia is expected to maintain its position as a global leader in wheat exports.
• Wheat and barley are the most important exports, with wheat accounting for over 70% of total production.
• The country's market share is likely to remain stable around 11-13% of global wheat exports.
• Australia has a competitive advantage in terms of quality and freight efficiency in Asia, particularly in Southeast Asia.

2. Export Growth Held Back by Resources Constraints

• Production growth is expected to be moderate due to constraints on arable land and water availability.
• High production and supply chain costs, compared to countries like the US and Canada, reduce price competitiveness.
• The average cost of growing wheat in Australia is USD6/tonne higher than in the US (excluding subsidies).

3. Competition Heating Up in Grain Export Markets

• Australia faces growing competition from Black Sea producers and from the US and Canada in the Chinese wheat market.
• China has become a major importer of wheat, with the US and Canada dominating the premium wheat segment due to superior quality and information systems.
• Australia's wheat quality has become less uniform, and its freight times to key markets are significantly longer than those of its competitors.

4. Investment in Supply Chain is Critical

• The government has committed to infrastructure development through the Agricultural Competitiveness White Paper and the National Water Infrastructure Fund.
• Investments are needed in rail and road networks, as well as in storage and port facilities, especially in the Northern region.
• An independent inquiry into freight and supply chain efficiency is expected to report findings by the end of 2017.

Risks to Outlook

Competitive Landscape

• Australia is a key player in global agricultural exports, particularly in wheat, sugar, dairy, and beef.
• Major agribusiness companies include IMTP Pty (acquired by Brazilian firm Minerva), which has a strong export presence in Asia.
• The sector is facing growing competition from countries like Brazil, India, and the Black Sea region.
• Trade agreements with Asia and the Middle East are expected to help Australia retain its competitive edge.

Demographic Forecast

• Population growth is expected to continue, with a focus on urbanization and aging demographics.
• These trends will influence demand for food and agricultural products in the coming years.
• The report highlights the importance of population ratios and life expectancy in shaping future market dynamics.

Methodology

• Forecasts are based on historical data, current trends, and expert analysis.
• The BMI methodology includes sector-specific analysis, taking into account production, consumption, trade, and infrastructure developments.
• The report draws on data from ABARES, USDA, and other reputable sources to ensure accuracy and reliability.

Conclusion

Australia's agribusiness sector is poised for continued growth in exports, supported by its reputation for quality and reliable supply. However, challenges such as rising production costs, climate change, and competition from lower-cost producers will require significant investment in infrastructure and innovation to sustain its position in the global market. The sector's future depends on strategic investments, improved supply chain efficiency, and the ability to adapt to evolving market demands.