巴德学院利维经济研究所-改善物质和社会基础设施的宏观经济和微观经济影响（英）_188页_1mb

Summary of "Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Impacts of Improving Physical and Social Infrastructure: A Macro-Micro Policy Model for Ghana and Tanzania"

Core Content

This report investigates the macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts of improving physical and social infrastructure, specifically focusing on road improvements and expansion of early childhood education (ECE) in Ghana and Tanzania. The study aims to understand how these policy interventions can reduce time and consumption poverty by lowering the time requirements for unpaid household and care work, which is referred to as "household production."

The report presents a macro-micro policy model that integrates both macroeconomic and microeconomic perspectives to evaluate the effects of infrastructure improvements. It emphasizes the role of gender in the distribution of time and consumption poverty, highlighting that women are more vulnerable to time and consumption deficits due to their higher involvement in unpaid care work.

The study uses Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) for both countries (2013 for Ghana, 2015 for Tanzania) to model the effects of policy interventions. It also incorporates time use surveys and microsimulation techniques to analyze how changes in employment and income affect household time allocation and consumption poverty.

Main Policy Interventions

Ghana

• Physical Infrastructure: Public Road Network

  • Current road network and conditions are analyzed.
  • Road improvements are expected to reduce commuting time and ease the burden on households.
  • The direct effect of road improvements is shown in Table 2-7 and visualized in Figure 2-1 and 2-2.

• Early Childhood Education (ECE)

  • ECE expansion is expected to reduce the time spent on childcare and related domestic tasks.
  • The direct effect of ECE expansion is presented in Table 2-11 and visualized in Figures 4-1 to 4-7.
  • The study finds that ECE expansion has a greater impact on female time spent on household production than on males.

Tanzania

• Physical Infrastructure: Public Road Network

  • Similar to Ghana, road improvements are expected to reduce commuting time and improve access to services.
  • The direct effect is presented in Table 2-15 and visualized in Figures 2-3 and 2-4.

• Early Childhood Education (ECE)

  • ECE expansion is expected to reduce the time spent on household production, especially in households with young children.
  • The direct effect is visualized in Figures 4-12 to 4-24 and discussed in Table 2-17 and 2-19.
  • ECE expansion also reduces the time deficit of employed individuals and changes the intrahousehold division of labor.

Macroeconomic Impacts

• The macroeconomic model is built using SAMs and includes capitalist and own-account sectors.
• The inclusion of an ECE sector in the model allows for a more comprehensive analysis of the economic effects of expanding ECE.
• Calibration and estimation of the model are based on public expenditures and their impact on employment and output.
• Scenarios are used to simulate the effects of the policy interventions, and the results are presented in Tables 3-4 and 3-7, as well as in Figures 4-25 to 4-32.

Effects on Time and Consumption Poverty

• A two-dimensional measure of deprivation is used to assess the impact of policy interventions on both time and consumption poverty.
• Direct effects of road improvements and ECE expansion are analyzed, showing reductions in commuting time and household production time, respectively.
• Total effects include both direct and indirect impacts, such as changes in employment and consumption patterns.
• The adjusted poverty line, which incorporates the monetized value of time deficits, is used to assess the impact of policy interventions on consumption poverty.
• The study finds that ECE expansion reduces the time spent on household production more significantly for women than for men, leading to a more equitable distribution of labor and consumption poverty.

Key Findings

• Time poverty is more pronounced among women due to their higher involvement in unpaid care work.
• Road improvements reduce commuting time and lower the time deficit for employed individuals, especially in rural areas.
• ECE expansion reduces the time spent on childcare and related domestic tasks, thereby lowering the time deficit for beneficiary households.
• The adjusted poverty line accounts for the monetized value of time deficits, providing a more accurate measure of consumption poverty.
• Macro-micro consistency is ensured by aligning microsimulation results with macroeconomic model outputs.
• The study highlights the positive externalities of infrastructure improvements, including their impact on gender equity, employment rates, and social justice.

Conclusion

• The study concludes that improving physical and social infrastructure has significant macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts.
• It recommends that policies aimed at reducing time deficits should be integrated into broader macroeconomic strategies to improve gender equity and reduce poverty.
• The expansion of ECE services is particularly effective in reducing time and consumption poverty, especially for women and children in beneficiary households.
• The framework developed in this study can be used to assess the effects of similar policy interventions in other developing countries.

References and Appendices

• The study includes detailed tables and figures that summarize the data and results.
• Appendix A presents the econometric analysis of the impact of road improvements and ECE expansion on time allocation.
• Appendix B discusses the estimation of thresholds for household production.
• Appendix C provides the details of the microsimulation model used to assess the effects of sectoral changes in employment.

This comprehensive analysis underscores the importance of considering both macroeconomic and microeconomic dimensions when evaluating the impact of infrastructure improvements on poverty and gender equity.