2025-01-19-世界银行-应对还是希望_新冠肺炎疫情中的生计多样化与粮食不安全（英）_58页_978kb

Summary

Background and Objective

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa, raising questions about the effectiveness of livelihood diversification as a coping strategy. This paper examines whether livelihood diversification reduces food insecurity during the pandemic using household panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria.

Methodology

• Data: Households were surveyed monthly (high-frequency phone surveys) starting after the pandemic, with pre-pandemic baseline data from LSMS-ISA surveys. Households represent general or phone-accessible populations.
• Diversification Indices: Used two indices (fractional and Herfindahl-Hirschman) to measure income diversification, covering both pre- and post-pandemic periods.
• FIES Food Insecurity: Measured using standardized scales accounting for geographic and temporal variations.
• Causal Estimation: Employed dynamic panel models and ANCOVA regressions with staggered round and region controls.

Results

• Stylized Facts:
  • Small but varied changes in diversification: Ethiopia/Malawi ↓ specialization; Nigeria ↑ diversification.
  • Job losses from illness/government restrictions offset diversification efforts.
• Regression Findings:
  • No significant relationship between livelihood diversification and food insecurity across all specifications/methods (both ex-ante and ex-post).
  • Effects null for most subgroups (gender/rural/urban).

Conclusion

The findings do not support the hypothesis that livelihood diversification boosts resilience to COVID-19-induced food insecurity. While diversification may be effective for smaller or localized shocks, the pandemic's scale and duration limited its utility as a coping strategy. Policymakers preparing for future disasters must consider this limitation of traditional adaptation methods.