2024-11-10-世界银行-巴拉圭-贫困与公平评估_促进包容性增长和减贫的战略（英）_86页_8mb

Paraguay Poverty and Equity Assessment Summary

Core Content

The Paraguay Poverty and Equity Assessment (2024) examines the country's progress in poverty reduction and equity over the period 2003–2022, and identifies structural barriers and policy priorities to accelerate inclusive growth and poverty reduction. Despite significant achievements, challenges persist, and the report emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to address multidimensional poverty and vulnerability.

Main Findings

Poverty Reduction Progress

• Paraguay reduced moderate poverty by half, from 51.4% in 2003 to 24.7% in 2022.
• Extreme poverty also declined by half, reaching 5.6% in 2022.
• The middle class expanded from 24.8% to 41.6% of the population between 2003 and 2022.
• Poverty reduction slowed after 2014, with most gains concentrated between 2003 and 2013.
• In 2023, moderate poverty decreased by 2.8 percentage points, and extreme poverty by 1.2 percentage points.

Spatial and Horizontal Disparities

• Poverty remains spatially concentrated, especially in rural areas, which have higher poverty rates than urban areas.
• The Gini coefficient in 2022 was 45, higher than that of structural peers like Albania, Armenia, and Tunisia.
• Urbanization increased from 54% to 64% between the early 2000s and 2022, but the urban poor population also grew.

Vulnerable Groups

• Young people, women of peak productive age, low-educated individuals, and informal workers are more vulnerable to poverty.
• Indigenous communities face significantly higher poverty rates than the general population.
• Children in households increase the risk of poverty.
• NEETs (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) are a growing concern, especially among youth.

Multidimensional Poverty

• Multidimensional poverty is five times higher in rural areas than in urban areas.
• Deprivations are most pronounced in pension contributions, garbage disposal, and cooking fuel.

Key Factors Limiting Poverty Reduction

1. Human Capital Deficits

• Paraguay has one of the youngest populations in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Education and health outcomes are among the worst globally, as shown by PISA 2022 results.
• Educational disparities are significant, especially for Indigenous and Guaraní-speaking students.
• 17% of youth (ages 15–24) are NEETs, indicating a lack of educational and employment opportunities.

2. Informal Employment

• 63% of the labor force is in informal employment, which has not changed since 2013.
• Paraguay ranks second lowest in job quality among LAC countries (JQI score: 0.64).
• Low job quality is due to limited coverage of job benefits like pensions and health insurance.
• High job turnover and labor force exits are common, especially among women and youth.

3. Fiscal System Limitations

• The fiscal system has limited redistributive capacity due to low tax collection (11.2% of GDP in 2021–23).
• Indirect taxes dominate, which are regressive and reduce the effectiveness of direct transfers.
• Social transfers often leak to higher income groups, undermining their impact.
• Public spending inefficiencies reduce resources for social investments and infrastructure.

4. Climate Vulnerability

• Low-income households are more vulnerable to climate shocks due to reliance on agriculture and subsistence farming.
• Flood risk affects 25% of the population, with pluvial and fluvial flooding being the primary concern.
• Extreme heat threatens 40% of the population.
• Rural areas are particularly at risk, with poor resilience to climate-related events.

Policy Priorities for Inclusive Growth and Poverty Reduction

1. Enhancing Human Capital

• Early childhood education and literacy programs should be prioritized to ensure equitable access to learning.
• Bilingual education and culturally responsive curricula are essential to address educational disparities.
• Vocational training and job readiness programs should target NEETs to prepare them for the labor market.

2. Improving Job Quality and Access

• Demand- and supply-side policies should be combined to create quality employment.
• Support for small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in strategic sectors can enhance productivity and wages.
• Investing in rural infrastructure and tailored training will support modern agribusinesses and rural employment.

3. Reforming the Fiscal System

• Improving tax progressivity by reviewing deductions and exemptions in personal and corporate taxes.
• Maintaining low VAT rates on essential goods and services for lower-income households.
• Enhancing targeting of social transfers, especially transportation subsidies, and reducing leakages to improve social spending efficiency.

4. Strengthening Climate Resilience

• Diversifying exports away from primary commodities to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
• Maintaining macroeconomic stability and enhancing climate risk mitigation.
• Improving data collection to better identify vulnerable populations and target adaptation and risk reduction measures.
• Strengthening infrastructure resilience to droughts and floods through integrated management plans.
• Developing climate risk insurance and strengthening safety nets for families and small-scale producers.

Conclusion

Paraguay has made substantial progress in poverty reduction over the past two decades, but sustained efforts are needed to maintain and accelerate this trend. Multidimensional poverty and vulnerability to climate shocks remain critical challenges, particularly in rural and Indigenous communities. The report calls for targeted interventions, fiscal reforms, and climate adaptation strategies to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth.