多米尼加共和国2023年贫困评估：快速减贫和全民繁荣（英）-2023-96页_1mb

Dominican Republic Poverty Assessment Summary

Poverty Trends

• Poverty levels in the Dominican Republic decreased significantly from 2004 to pre-COVID-19 levels (2019) but reversed due to the 2020 pandemic.
• Economic growth was pro-poor since 2004-2013 and 2017-2020, but stagnant real wages limited poverty reduction progress.
• By 2021, poverty increased to 23.9% of the population, with high exposure in vulnerable groups (women, informal workers).
• Nonmonetary poverty decreased from 47% in 2007 to 25% in 2021, driven by improvements in housing, sanitation, and education access.

Drivers of Slow Poverty Reduction

1. Education and Labor Opportunities:

   • Human capital deficits persist despite high secondary enrollment.
   • Girls drop out more often due to early pregnancy and household chores.
   • Labor incomes stagnant since 2004; women earn 27% less than men on average.

2. Access to Services and Housing:

   • Urban centers have better access to infrastructure than rural areas.
   • Informal settlements lack resilience to climate shocks.

3. Fiscal Policy:

   • Fiscal transfers modestly reduce poverty but rely on inefficient subsidies and regressive taxes.
   • Safety nets are limited in coverage, targeting, and generosity.

4. Climate Vulnerability:

   • Dominant in global climate risk index with frequent floods and hurricanes.
   • Poor households lack insurance and preventive capacity.

Key Recommendations

1. Invest in People:

   • Expand conditional cash transfers (Avanza), focus on girls' education and vocational training.
   • Strengthen early childhood care and digital learning initiatives.

2. Boost Labor Productivity:

   • Align education with market skills through vocational programs.
   • Reform competition policies to prevent monopolies from hindering innovation.

3. Reduce Spatial Inequalities:

   • Improve territorial planning for equitable access to connectivity and housing.
   • Channel tax revenues from SEZs to underserved regions.

4. Enhance Fiscal Policy:

   • Reduce informality, combat tax evasion, and better target subsidies.
   • Make cash transfers more generous, regularized, and indexed to inflation.

5. Strengthen Safety Nets:

   • Pilot preventive measures against climate shocks and promote digital financial tools.

COVID-19 Impact

• Government response mitigated poverty impact initially, but persistent informality and inflation undermined gains.
• Future reforms must accelerate pro-poor growth by integrating human capital, job creation, service access, and climate resilience.