2024-10-20-世界银行-汤加年贫困与公平评估_驾驭动荡浪潮_实现持续减贫（英）_137页_10mb

Summary of Navigating Turbulent Waves Toward Sustained Poverty Reduction: Tonga Poverty and Equity Assessment 2024

Core Content

This report presents the findings of the Tonga Poverty and Equity Assessment (PEA) 2024, conducted by the World Bank, to analyze the extent, nature, and drivers of poverty and inequality in Tonga. It highlights the country's progress in reducing poverty and inequality between 2015/16 and 2021, despite facing multiple large shocks, including natural disasters and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Findings

Poverty and Inequality Trends

• Poverty reduction: The national poverty rate dropped from 27.4% in 2015/16 to 20.6% in 2021, with similar declines in both rural and urban areas.
• Inequality reduction: Inequality, measured by the consumption-based Gini Coefficient, also decreased during the same period.
• Spatial disparities: Poverty remains higher in 'Eua and Ongo Niua compared to urban Tongatapu, which has a lower poverty rate but houses two-thirds of the country’s poor population.
• Non-monetary improvements: Access to basic services like electricity and sanitation improved, though disparities still exist between islands.

Key Drivers of Poverty Reduction

• Remittances: A major driver of poverty reduction, with remittances increasing significantly as a share of GDP (from 30% in 2015 to 45% in 2021).
• High reliance on remittances: Nearly 90% of households received remittances, and almost 40% relied on them as their main income source.
• Coping strategies: Poor households used various coping mechanisms, including unsustainable strategies, to deal with the crises.
• Government social assistance: While the current social assistance programs (SWS, DWS, CCT) have limited impact on poverty due to low coverage and small benefit amounts, targeted transfers could be more effective.

Human Capital and Labor Market

• Low human capital: Tonga's human capital index is lower than other upper-middle-income countries, indicating limited productivity and skills.
• Skills mismatches: The domestic labor market suffers from skills mismatches, with many workers employed in low-productivity sectors.
• Employment patterns: Labor force participation and employment rates remain low, particularly among the poor and females.
• Education gaps: Children from poor households are less likely to be enrolled in school, and education returns are higher for men and urban residents.

Vulnerability and Natural Disasters

• Frequent natural disasters: Tonga is frequently exposed to natural hazards, including tropical cyclones, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and coastal flooding.
• Impact of disasters: Recent natural disasters, such as the HT-HH volcanic eruption and TCs, caused significant consumption losses, potentially pushing a large share of the non-poor population into poverty.
• Vulnerability of poor households: Poorer households are more exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards, especially coastal flooding.
• Coping mechanisms: Poor households often resort to unsustainable coping strategies during crises.

Social Protection and Policy Implications

• Current social protection: The existing social assistance programs have limited impact on poverty reduction, except for the elderly.
• Need for reform: To improve poverty reduction, the report suggests increasing the coverage and benefit levels of social assistance programs.
• Targeted transfers: Well-targeted cash transfers could effectively and efficiently reduce disaster impacts.
• Policy goals: The National Social Protection Policy (NSPP) 2023-2033 outlines goals for expanding coverage and increasing benefits to better protect the poor.

Risks to Sustainable Poverty Reduction

• Dependence on remittances: Over-reliance on remittances poses a risk to long-term economic stability.
• Exchange rate volatility: Fluctuations in exchange rates could affect the value of remittances.
• Global economic conditions: Shocks to the global economy may impact remittances and, thus, poverty reduction.
• Labor mobility schemes: While beneficial, these schemes have raised concerns about over-recruitment from specific rural communities and the difficulty in finding qualified workers.

Conclusion

Tonga has made notable progress in reducing poverty and inequality over the past few years, largely supported by remittances and improved access to basic services. However, the country faces significant risks, including over-dependence on remittances, natural disaster vulnerability, and limited labor market opportunities. To ensure sustained poverty reduction, the report emphasizes the need for policy reforms in social protection, human capital development, and labor mobility schemes.