20220119-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_2页_136kb

Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of recent market developments in China and Hong Kong, along with updates on specific sectors and listed companies. It highlights macroeconomic policy changes, stock market reactions, sector performance, and company-specific news, while also including disclaimers regarding the nature and reliability of the information provided.

Main Market Developments

• Interest Rate Cut by PBC: The People's Bank of China (PBC) cut the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 10 basis points to 2.85%, marking the first reduction in 21 months. This move aligns with market expectations following the PBC's RRR cut in December 2021.
• Hong Kong Stock Market Reaction: The Hong Kong stocks afternoon session corrected due to U.S. treasury yields reaching two-year highs. The Hang Seng Index fell by 105 points to 24,112, with a daily turnover of HKD112.3 billion.
• Alibaba Cloud National Security Concerns: The Biden administration is assessing whether Alibaba Cloud poses a national security risk, which could lead to a short-term decline in its share price (Alibaba-SW, 9988 HK).

Sector News

China Coal

• Price Increases: The CCTD QHD5,500 blended coal price increased by 5.1% week-over-week (WoW) to RMB779/t, while the spot coal price rose by 10.4% WoW to RMB905/t as of 14 Jan 2022.
• BSPI: The BSPI increased slightly by 0.7% WoW to RMB738/t as of 12 Jan 2022.
• NDRC Policy: The NDRC issued a notice on 31 Dec 2021 to ensure coal supply for January 2022, requiring coal IPPs in North China to maintain coal inventory for at least 30 days before the Winter Olympic Games.
• Market Outlook: Despite short-term price hikes near the Lunar New Year, coal prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the first quarter of 2022 (1Q22E) due to balanced supply and demand.

China Property

• Primary GFA Sales: Primary gross floor area (GFA) sold in 36 cities remained largely flat WoW in the second week of January 2022, with a 44% YoY decline.
• Secondary GFA Sales: Secondary GFA sold in 10 cities surged by 82% WoW but still showed a 15% YoY decline.
• Inventory Levels: Inventory increased by 0.2% WoW, with 12-month inventory months at 13.5 (up from 12.8 in December 2021).
• Policy Updates:
  • Xiamen introduced a policy allowing households in affordable rental housing to exchange their housing via a city-wide platform on 13 Jan 2022.
  • Luzhou announced a new talent housing policy, including a settlement subsidy of up to RMB2 million per person on 14 Jan 2022.

Company News

CR Power (836 HK)

• Dec 2021 Power Generation: Consolidated power generation declined by 0.1% YoY to 17,517 GWh.
• Thermal Power: Thermal power generation fell by 8.9% YoY to 13,959 GWh, attributed to low utilisation hours.
• Wind Power: Wind power generation rose by 66.9% YoY to 3,226 GWh, driven by favorable wind conditions and increased wind capacity installations.
• 2021 Cumulative Wind Power: Wind power generation for 2021 increased by 57.8% YoY to 31,936 GWh.
• Coal-Fired Segment: The coal-fired segment's net power generation grew by 7.5% YoY to 142,451 GWh in 2021.

SITC Int'l (1308 HK)

• Contract Renewals: Renewed first-round contracts on 31 Nov 2021, with an average freight rate increase of USD200-300 to USD700-800 (approximately 40%) on Southeast Asia routes starting 1 Jan 2022.
• Contract Ratio: Overall contract ratio remained stable at 60%, while the 1-year contract ratio rose to 50% from the usual 30%.
• Future Outlook: Second-round contract renewals are expected in March 2022E, with management anticipating stronger freight rates than the previous round.
• Cost Expectations: Management expects rising labor, chartering, fuel, and port costs in 2022E, which may support higher freight rates.
• Dividend Expectations: The company is likely to deliver a special dividend from disposal gains.

Hengan Int'l (1044 HK)

• 2022E Sales Growth: Targets mid-single digit sales growth, driven by tissue business.
  • Tissue: Single-digit volume growth and ASP increase from product mix improvements.
  • Sanitary Napkins: Expected to align with low single-digit industry growth, with management anticipating price competition to be unsustainable.
  • Diapers: Potential turnaround in 2H22E if Qmo maintains 30-40% YoY growth.
• Margin Forecast: Pulp costs are expected to rise in 1H22E but decline in 2H22E.

Key Information

• Policy Impact: The PBC's rate cut and NDRC's coal supply policy are key factors influencing market sentiment and sector dynamics.
• Stock Market Volatility: Hong Kong stocks were affected by U.S. treasury yields, leading to a correction in the afternoon session.
• Company Performance: CR Power saw strong wind power generation growth, while SITC Int'l and Hengan Int'l are positioned for potential growth and cost management in 2022E.
• Investment Risks: The document includes disclaimers highlighting the risks associated with international investments, including economic, political, and currency-related factors.

Disclaimers

• The content is for general information and not investment research or recommendation.
• No independent verification of data is conducted.
• MIBSHK does not accept liability for reliance on the information provided.
• There may be discrepancies between different types of investment analysis.
• MIBSHK may have involvement with companies mentioned, including participation in financing transactions or investment banking services.