2025-05-19-Jefferies-STAAR外科（STAA）_中国ICL手术在第一季度增长；撤回指引；持有_目标价至21美元_11页_318kb

USA Medical Supplies & Devices Equity Research: STAAR Surgical

Company Overview

STAAR Surgical designs, develops, and sells implantable lenses for the eye and delivery systems, focusing on treatments for myopia, hyperopia, astigmatism, and presbyopia.

Financial Highlights

• Q1 2025 Performance: Revenue of $43 MM, 6% above previous consensus and above prior guidance, indicating strong China ICL procedure growth amid macro headwinds.
• 2025 Guidance: Withdrawn due to tough macroeconomic conditions and efforts to rebuild credibility. Ex-China revenue growth is revisited downward, but China revenue guidance remains positive.
• Profitability: STAA expects profitability in H2 2025 due to improved gross margin (~70% in H2) and operational cost controls, with an estimated €225 MM SG&A run rate for 2025.
• Revenue Projections: 2025 revenue expected lower ($256.1 MM), with 2026E at $325.1 MM; gross margins targeted at 75-80% post-Swiss manufacturing scale-up by 2026.
• SG&A Control: Focus on realigning expenses with revenue contributions, disproportionately impacting US operations.

Market Updates

• China Market: Procedure growth positive, with macro headwinds expected to diminish in H2. Tariff mitigation is underway, with most impacts expected to be addressed by early 2026.
• US Market: Growth at 8% YOY, but slower than expected; STAA outperforms the market (~25%) from a small base, however opex cuts are focusing on US operations.
• Macro Headwinds: Diminishing in China but persistent in US, affecting revenue guidance.

Valuation and Outlook

• Rating and Price Target: Hold rating; price target updated to $21 (9% upside), based on 3x 2026E EV/Revs.
• Catalysts: EU launch of EVO Viva ICL, US growth inflection, and China outperformance.
• Risks: Regulatory delays (e.g., EDOF/ICL approvals), competitive pressures, and global pandemic disruptions.
• Long-term Growth: Base case PT $21, bull case $30 (4x EV/Revs 2026), bear case $12 (2x EV/Revs 2026). Key growth drivers include EVO ICL share gains in China and Viva ICL adoption in Europe.

Investment Thesis

• Long-term Potential: Holds as a medium-term solution for refractive surgery, but faces challenges in key markets (China's macro and US adoption). Low multiple reflects outlook uncertainty.