20170209-兴业证券-A-Share_Daily_Express_11页_1mb
报告摘要
Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. Summary
Core Content Overview
Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. provides a comprehensive market review and analysis for China and global financial markets, including stock indices, sector performance, company news, and macroeconomic insights. The report highlights the bullish trend in Chinese markets, the impact of monetary policy, and key developments in major sectors like shipping and pharmaceuticals.
Market Indices
- SSE Composite: Closed at 3183.18, up 0.51%
- SZSE Component: Closed at 10182.73, up 0.52%
- CSI 300: Closed at 3396.29, up 0.38%
- ChiNext Index: Closed at 1914.08, up 0.55%
- Aggregate Market Volume: CNY458.66 billion
- HSI (Hong Kong): Closed at 23525.14, up 0.17%
- HSCEI (Hong Kong): Closed at 10075.17, up 1.20%
Main Market Trends
- China stocks closed higher on Thursday, marking a second consecutive winning streak.
- Market volume expanded by 18.7% compared to the previous session.
- Winners outnumbered losers by 2136-to-641.
- The PBOC halted open market operations for the fifth consecutive session, indicating tighter liquidity.
- The central parity rate of the yuan strengthened by 139 basis points to 6.8710 against the US dollar.
Sector Review
Winners
- Construction: Strong performance driven by increased demand for cement.
- China Communications Construction Co. (601800): +3.67%
- China Railway Group Limited (601390): +2.70%
- Building Materials: Cement stocks led the market.
- Anhui Conch Cement Co. (600585): +4.93%
- Tangshan Jidong Cement Co. (000401): +7.51%
- Steel Makers: Gained due to industry dynamics.
- Hesteel Company Limited (000709): +4.85%
- Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co. (600010): +1.37%
- Real Estate: Positive momentum in the sector.
- Poly Real Estate Group Co. (600048): +2.15%
- China Fortune Land Development Co. (600340): +4.61%
Losers
- Brokerage Firms: Experienced corrections.
- Haitong Securities Company Limited (600837): -0.31%
- Huatai Securities Co. (601688): -0.16%
Daily Headlines
- EU: Said to support 18-month extension of China solar-panel duties, and may renew 18-year-old steel rope tariff.
- China's Carbon Emission Plan: Moving closer to introducing rules for a national carbon trading scheme.
- Monetary Policy Outlook: China may continue tightening monetary policy in 2017 due to yuan stabilization, financial deleveraging, and inflationary pressures.
- Annual Meeting: China will hold a securities and futures supervision meeting on Feb. 10-11 in Beijing.
- Foreign Exchange: China reported a 4Q current-account surplus of CNY37.6 billion, and a non-reserve financial account deficit of CNY187.2 billion.
- Soy Sales: China may resume weekly soy sales from state reserves after March.
- Bitcoin Regulation: PBOC met with domestic bitcoin exchanges, signaling potential regulatory tightening.
- Carlsberg: Considering a 20% stake in Tsingtao Brewery Co.
- New Energy Car Policies: China will not abruptly withdraw support for new-energy cars.
Latest Company News
- Changan Auto (200625 CH): Jan. vehicle sales reached 291,109 units.
- Gemdale (600383 CH): Jan. contracted sales of CNY7.56 billion, down 0.22% YoY.
- Guangzhou Auto (601238 CH): Jan. sales volume of 167,968 units.
- Sinopec (6000628 CH): Yanchuannan CBM field producing over 740,000 cubic meters/day.
- Shanghai Pechem (600688 CH): Appointed a vice-president and CFO.
- Shenwan Hongyuan (000166 CH): Jan. net profit of CNY103.3 million.
- TCL Corp. (000100 CH): Jan. LCD TV sales fell to 1.87 million units.
- Tsingtao Brewery (600600 CH): Carlsberg may bid for a CNY1.2 billion stake.
- Wuliangye (00858 CH): Parent company sales rose about 8% YoY in 2016.
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SH) - Buy (Revise Up)
Company Overview
- Engaged in container shipping, dry bulk shipping, terminal operations, logistics, and container leasing.
- Ranking fourth globally with a 7.8% market share in container shipping.
Market Outlook
- Optimistic about shipping industry recovery in 2017.
- M&As and increased concentration rate are expected to stabilize freight rates.
- Assuming USD100/TEU increase in shipping prices, profit would rise by CNY1.7, 2.5, and 7.1 billion respectively.
Earnings Forecast
- 2016: EPS = -0.97
- 2017: EPS = 0.36 (16x PE)
- 2018: EPS = 0.47 (12x PE)
- Investment Rating: Buy
Key Financial Indicators
| FY | 2015A | 2016E | 2017E | 2018E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Mn/CNY) | 57,490 | 68,458 | 81,246 | 82,581 |
| YoY (%) | -10.7% | 19.1% | 18.7% | 1.6% |
| Net Profit (Mn/CNY) | 2,830 | -9,861 | 3,723 | 4,846 |
| YoY (%) | -21.8% | -3579.7% | -62.2% | 30.2% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 4.1% | -1.6% | 12.1% | 12.9% |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 0.5% | -14.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% |
| ROE (%) | 1.1% | -66.7% | 20.1% | 20.7% |
| EPS (CNY) | 0.03 | -0.97 | 0.36 | 0.47 |
Potential Risks
- Weaker-than-expected demand
- Stronger-than-expected capacity
- Internal competition
- Trade protectionism
- Oil price rise
Hengrui Medicine (600276.SH) - Strong Buy (Maintained)
Company Overview
- Engaged in pharmaceutical tablets, injections, and raw materials.
- Main products include antineoplastic drugs, surgery drugs, endocrine drugs, and antibiotics.
Event
- Hengrui Medicine obtained FDA approval for its Cisatracurium Besilate injection.
- Sales may grow rapidly through cooperation with TEVA.
Earnings Forecast
| FY | 2015A | 2016E | 2017E | 2018E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Mn/CNY) | 9,316 | 11,460 | 13,923 | 16,757 |
| YoY (%) | 25.0% | 23.0% | 21.5% | 20.4% |
| Net Profit (Mn/CNY) | 2,172 | 2,675 | 3,255 | 3,931 |
| YoY (%) | 43.3% | 23.2% | 21.7% | 20.8% |
| EPS (CNY) | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1.39 | 1.67 |
Comments
- Cisatracurium Besilate has a sound competitive landscape.
- The company is gradually expanding its product portfolio with steady earnings growth.
Global Macro Insights
China's No.1 Central Document
- Focuses on accelerating agricultural supply-side reform.
- Highlights industry structure optimization and rural reforms.
Monetary Policy Outlook
- PBOC: Maintained a tighter stance, with increased MLF rates and liquidity management.
- Fed: Kept federal funds rate between 0.5%–0.75%, with mixed signals on future rate hikes.
- ECB: Diverging opinions on whether to maintain or exit easy money policies due to improved inflation and economic data.
Key Financial Ratios (COSCO SHIPPING Holdings)
| FY | 2015 | 2016E | 2017E | 2018E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 214.86 | -6.17 | 16.36 | 12.57 |
| PB | 2.47 | 4.12 | 3.29 | 2.61 |
| ROE | 1.1% | -66.7% | 20.1% | 20.7% |
| Current Ratio | 1.60 | 1.25 | 1.60 | 1.92 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.54 | 1.19 | 1.53 | 1.84 |
| Asset Turnover | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.55 | 0.56 |
Key Financial Ratios (Hengrui Medicine)
| FY | 2015A | 2016E | 2017E | 2018E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin (%) | 85.3% | 85.9% | 86.1% | 86.5% |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 23.3% | 23.3% | 23.4% | 23.5% |
| ROE (%) | 21.9% | 21.4% | 20.7% | 20.0% |
| EPS (CNY) | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1.39 | 1.67 |
| OCFPS (CNY) | 0.97 | 0.76 | 1.24 | 1.47 |
| BVPS (CNY) | 4.99 | 4.99 | 4.99 | 4.99 |
Conclusion
The report provides a detailed analysis of China's stock market performance, highlighting the continued bullish trend in key sectors such as construction, building materials, and real estate. It also covers the financial performance of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings and Hengrui Medicine, with positive outlooks and investment ratings. Additionally, it includes macroeconomic insights on China's policy direction, central bank actions, and global monetary trends.
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