20160315-兴业证券-A-Share_Daily_Express_11页_823kb

报告摘要

Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. Summary

Core Content Overview

Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. provides a comprehensive report on the Chinese financial market, including indices, sector performance, daily headlines, company news, and investment strategies. The report also includes detailed financial data and analysis for Shanghai International Airport (600009.SH), highlighting its performance and future outlook.

Market Indices

Index	Close	Daily Change	% Change
SSE Composite	2864.37	↑ 4.87	↑ 0.17%
SZSE Component	9574.19	↓ 90.94	↓ 0.94%
CSI 300	3074.78	↑ 9.09	↑ 0.30%
ChiNext	1996.92	↓ 26.21	↓ 1.30%
HSI	20288.77	↓ 146.57	↓ 0.72%
HSCEI	8605.63	↓ 80.64	↓ 0.93%

Market Volume: CNY 428 billion
Performance Summary: 713 tickers increased, 1791 tickers decreased (winners outnumbered losers by 0.39 to 1)

Main Market Review

The market declined before 14:00 but was rallied by government intervention.
20 companies reported a 100% drop in profits, with three companies experiencing over a 1000% decline.
Market Outlook: With no fundamental improvement or new policy stimulus, the market is expected to remain weak in the short term.

Sector Review

Blue Chip Sectors: Bank, food & beverage, and public service sectors performed better.
- Bank Sector:
  - Bank of Beijing (601169): +3.40%
  - Bank of Communications (601328): +2.55%
- Food & Beverage Sector:
  - Qianhe Condiment and Food (603027): +10.00%
  - Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food (603288): +7.42%
- Public Service Sector:
  - Heilongjiang Interchina Water Treatment (600187): +10.07%
  - Jiangsu Jiangnan Water (601199): +6.01%
  - Chongqing Fuling Electric Power (600452): +5.68%

Daily Headlines

The central bank called commercial lenders to a meeting in Shenzhen to emphasize mortgage lending rules.
End of February yuan positions at the PBOC reached 23.98 trillion yuan, with a net decrease of 227.9 billion yuan from January.
PBOC deputy governor Yi Gang suggested that banks should sell bad assets through the market.
SAIC plans to regulate transactions via WeChat.
P2P lenders have stopped offering loans for home down payments.
China National Petroleum Corp. is set to undergo reforms as part of state-run enterprise restructuring.

Latest Company News

China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH): Jan.-Feb. life insurance premium reached 36.3 billion yuan.
China Vanke (000002.SZ): Still in talks with Shenzhen Metro on a deal.
Midea (000333.SZ): Plans to acquire Toshiba's appliance unit.
Shanghai Shimao (600823.SH): Seeks a private share sale of up to 6.67 billion yuan.
Wuyi (000797.SZ): Aims to establish steel and iron factories in Kenya.

Fixed Income Weekly - Supply in Contraction

Key Insights:
- Industrial output remains sluggish, but investment shows signs of recovery.
- Supply-side contraction is due to weak demand and tight monetary conditions.
- Real estate and infrastructure investment are key drivers for economic growth.
- Policy support and liquidity conditions are important factors affecting the bond market.

Shanghai International Airport (600009.SH) - Outperform (Maintained)

Key Financial Indicators (2015-2017E)

Metric	2015E	2016E	2017E
Revenue (Mn/CNY)	628540.03	7354	8089
Net Profit (Mn/CNY)	149.00	178.03	200.78
EPS (CNY)	0.46	0.55	0.63
OCFPS (CNY)	0.59	0.80	0.83
Net Profit Margin (%)	18.4%	19.1%	19.6%
ROE (%)	19.72%	19.07%	17.70%

Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations

EPS Forecast: CNY 1.43 in 2016 and CNY 1.57 in 2017
PE Ratio: 20x / 18x
Rating: OUTPERFORM, based on potential catalysts like Shanghai FTA, Disney resort, and asset injection expectations.

Comment

The company's performance was boosted by high-efficiency operations.
Air traffic movements, passenger throughput, and cargo tonnage all increased significantly in 2015.
The 4th runway's operation and rising outbound trips contributed to higher earnings.
Amortization and financial expenses dropped, helping to maintain low cost growth.
Investment activities and non-operating revenue contributed to the company's income.
Ground service subsidiary performance improved significantly.

Potential Risks

Weak macroeconomic conditions may impact aviation demand.
Falling oil prices reduce investment returns for Pudong Aviation Oil.
External risks such as wars, epidemics, and natural disasters.

Investment Strategy for Rates Products

Primary Market: Net supply increased, but bidding results were mixed.
Secondary Market: Yields decreased, especially for medium-term CDB bonds.
Monetary Policy: The logic behind monetary loosening remains intact, and the bond market is unlikely to experience sharp corrections.
Credit Bonds: Credit spreads are narrowing due to financial disintermediation and liquidity easing.
Recommendation: Investors should adopt defensive strategies and carefully select stocks.

Liquidity Analysis

Inter-bank Liquidity: Fluctuated but remained accommodative.
Repo Rates: 21-day repo rate declined by 12bp, while 14-day and 1-month rates rose slightly.
Exchange Repo Rates: Declined along with shrinking trade volume.
Shibor Rates: 3-month rate declined further.
Overall Liquidity: Neutral balance, with stable expectations.

Bond Market Review (March 7–11, 2016)

Bond Yields: Declined, with medium-term CDB bonds seeing the most significant drops.
Government Bond Futures: TF1606 at 100.76, T1606 at 99.79.
Market Trends: Weaker stagflation expectations and improved market performance.

Analyst and Translator Information

Analysts:
- Tang Yue (tangyue@xyzq.com.cn)
- Huang Weiping (huangweiping@xyzq.com.cn)
- Wang Han (wanghan@xyzq.com.cn)
- Lu Yanjin (luyj@xyzq.com.cn)
- Jia Xiaojun (jiaxj@xyzq.com.cn)
- Wang Yijun (wangyijun@xyzq.com.cn)
- Zuo Dayong (zuodayong@xyzq.com.cn)
- Li Huiquan (lihq@xyzq.com.cn)
- Chi Guangsheng (chigs@xyzq.com.cn)
- Luo Ting (luoting@xyzq.com.cn)
Translator: Li Xing (lixingyj@xyzq.com.cn)

Company Investment Rating

Outperform: Shanghai International Airport is expected to outperform the market by 5%–15% over the next 12 months.
Key Drivers: Shanghai FTA, Disney resort, and asset injection expectations.
Rating Criteria:
- Buy: More than 15% better than the market
- Outperform: 5%–15% better than the market
- Neutral: Less than 5% better or worse
- Underperform: More than 5% worse than the market

Conclusion

The report highlights the mixed performance of the Chinese stock market with some sectors showing resilience and others experiencing declines. The bond market showed signs of improvement, driven by monetary policy and liquidity conditions. Shanghai International Airport demonstrated strong financial performance, with increased revenue and net profit, and is recommended as an OUTPERFORM stock due to its growth potential and catalysts. Investors are advised to remain cautious and adopt defensive strategies given the weak macroeconomic environment and potential credit risks.

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