20171102-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_6页_543kb
报告摘要
Summary of Dim Sum Express Document
Key Index Performance
The following table summarizes the performance of key indices:
| Market | 1D Chg (%) | 1M Chg (%) | YTD Chg (%) | 17E EPS (%) | 18E EPS (%) | 17E P/E | 18E P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 1.2 | 3.8 | 30.0 | 22.8 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 11.9 |
| HSCEI | 1.1 | 6.7 | 23.9 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 8.1 |
| MXCN | 1.1 | 4.8 | 48.5 | 26.0 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 13.3 |
| SHSZ300 | -0.3 | 4.2 | 20.7 | 18.9 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 13.3 |
| SHCOMP | 0.1 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 27.4 | 12.6 | 14.6 | 13.0 |
| SZCOMP | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 52.1 | 24.8 | 26.1 | 20.9 |
| INDU | 0.3 | 3.9 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 9.3 | 18.7 | 17.1 |
| SPX | 0.2 | 2.0 | 15.2 | 22.4 | 10.3 | 19.4 | 17.6 |
| CCI | -0.2 | 3.1 | 24.8 | 37.7 | 11.4 | 19.2 | 17.2 |
Hong Kong ADRs
| HK Ticker | Company | Local (HK$) | Daily (%) | ADR (US$) | Daily (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 700 | TENCENT | 360.0 | 2.92 | 46.1 | 2.22 |
| 1398 | ICBC | 6.3 | 1.13 | 16.0 | 0.85 |
| 939 | CCB | 7.0 | -0.14 | 17.8 | 0.06 |
| 857 | PETROCHINA | 5.1 | 0.39 | 66.0 | 0.82 |
| 941 | CHINA MOBILE | 79.4 | 1.34 | 50.8 | 0.63 |
| 5 | HSBC | 76.7 | 0.59 | 48.7 | -0.18 |
| 2318 | PING AN | 70.3 | 2.63 | 18.1 | 2.09 |
| 3988 | BANK OF CHINA | 3.9 | -0.51 | 12.4 | -0.64 |
| 2628 | CHINA LIFE | 27.7 | 7.36 | 17.6 | 5.70 |
| 386 | SINOPEC | 5.7 | 0.17 | 73.8 | 0.23 |
A-Share Market Overview
- 3Q17 Earnings Growth: A-shares earnings grew by 18.2% YoY, better than the 16.3% YoY in 2Q17. A-shares ex-financials earnings increased by 35.3% YoY, surpassing the 33.4% YoY in 2Q17.
- Sector Performance: Downstream consumption and midstream manufacturing sectors offset earnings slowdown in upstream resources sectors.
- Investment Themes: The government's push for better quality of life highlights supply-side constraint improvements (education, land transfer, PPP, green finance, advanced manufacturing) and demand upgrades (environmental protection, healthcare, education, telecommunication services).
Investment Strategy for November
- Market Outlook: The Hong Kong market is range-bound, waiting for catalysts like the Nov FOMC meeting, US tax reform, and Fed Chair announcement.
- Portfolio Recommendations:
- High Growth Sectors: Tech, Auto
- Re-rating Potential Sectors: Insurance, Banks
- Defensive Sectors: Oil, Healthcare, Environmental
- Key Stocks:
- Tencent (700 HK, NR): Strong performance in October
- Ping An (2318 HK, Buy): Improved fundamentals and low valuation
- ABC (1288 HK, NR): Strongest earnings growth and NPL ratio improvement
- Geely Auto (175 HK, Buy): Positive outlook for growth
- Brilliance China (1114 HK, Buy): Strong growth potential
- CSPC Pharma (1093 HK, Accumulate): Benefiting from healthcare demand upgrades
- BJE Water (371 HK, NR): Environmental sector beneficiary
Environmental Sector Performance
- 9M17 Earnings Review:
- Water, Solid Waste Treatment & Monitoring subsectors outperformed with strong revenue and profit growth.
- Air Treatment subsector saw weaker growth and negative profit growth.
- Sector Growth:
- Combined revenue of Rmb76.1bn, up 27.4% YoY
- Recurring net profit of Rmb8bn, up 24.3% YoY
- Subsector Growth:
- Water Treatment: >30% revenue growth
- Solid Waste Treatment & Monitoring: >30% revenue growth
- Air Treatment: 13% revenue growth and negative profit growth
- Company Insights:
- Large-cap companies (above Rmb20bn) showed >40% revenue growth
- Medium-cap (Rmb5-20bn) and small-cap (below Rmb5bn) companies showed fluctuating and volatile growth, respectively.
- Recommended Companies:
- Industrial Exhaust Treatment: Longking (600388 CH), SPC EP Tech (002573 CH)
- Industrial Environmental Monitoring: Focused Photonics (300203 CH)
- Industrial Environmental Upgrade: Sanju EP & New Materials (300072 CH)
- Industrial Sewage Treatment: Shanghai Emperor (603200 CH)
- Hazardous Industrial Waste Treatment: Xuelang Environmental (300385 CH)
- Ecological Development: Originwater Technology (300070 CH), Orient Landscape & Environment (002310 CH), Bossco (300422 CH), Kingland Technology (000711 CH)
Risks
- Faster-than-expected interest rate hikes
- Slower-than-expected earnings growth
Rating Definitions
| Rating | Description |
|---|---|
| Buy | Expected to outperform benchmark by >15% |
| Accumulate | Expected to outperform benchmark by >5% but not more than 15% |
| Hold | Expected relative performance between -5% and 5% |
| Underperform | Expected to underperform benchmark by >5% |
Analyst Certification
- The views expressed in the report accurately reflect the analysts' personal views.
- No part of the analysts' remuneration is directly or indirectly linked to the recommendations or views in the report.
Disclosure of Interests
- GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares in the securities mentioned.
- No investment banking relationship with the mentioned companies in the past 12 months.
- Analysts and their associates are not officers of the companies and have no financial interests in the securities.
Disclaimer
- This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
- The research is intended solely for use by GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients.
- No action has been taken to permit distribution in jurisdictions where it is unlawful.
- GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of the materials, unless excluded by law.
- Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
- The report should not be taken as a substitute for professional advice.
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