20160725-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_985kb

报告摘要

China Cement Weekly Summary - July 25, 2016

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the Chinese cement sector, focusing on price trends, production performance, and stock market analysis for the first half of 2016 (1H16).

Key Highlights

Cement Prices:
- The average cement price remained flat at RMB253.17/tonne week-on-week, but increased by 0.4% year-on-year.
- Prices in South China improved due to better weather, while North China prices were stable despite a short rainy period.
- The national average inventory level slightly declined to 71.25%.
Production Volume Growth (1H16):
- North China showed the highest growth at 9%, driven by projects related to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration.
- East China had a weak growth of 1.2% due to unfavourable weather.
- South Central China and Southwest China recorded decent growth of 4.25% and 5.8%, respectively.
- Northeast China and Northwest China experienced weak or negative growth of 0.03% and -1.96%, respectively, due to low fixed asset investment.
Stock Performance:
- Cement stocks under coverage rose on average by 1.9%.
- BBMG was the best performer, increasing by 7.4%.
- CNBM was the weakest, declining by 3.2%, partly due to a profit warning for 1H16.

Valuation Table

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (US$m)	PER (x)	PBR (x)	EV/EBITDA (x)	Net Debt/Equity (%)
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	BUY	20.20	12,805	14.5	9.5	9.5	1.32
ONBM	3323 HK Equity	HOLD	3.62	2,506	27.1	6.3	6.4	0.42
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	BUY	2.89	5,911	11.4	7.7	7.2	0.62
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	HOLD	2.75	2,303	8.5	10.0	10.0	0.66
Simple Average					15.4	8.4	8.3	0.75
Weighted Average					14.4	8.8	8.6	0.98

EPS Growth and Valuation Metrics

Company	Ticker	EPS Growth (%)	PEG (x)	ROE (%)	Dividend Yield (%)
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	46.2	0.4	8.93	12.09
ONBM	3323 HK Equity	315.0	0.1	1.49	5.95
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	(28.0)	(0.5)	7.51	5.49
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	56.0	0.3	5.41	7.42
Simple Average		97.3	0.1	5.84	7.74
Weighted Average		70.0	0.3	7.12	9.61

Peer Comparison

Company	Ticker	Market Cap (US$m)	PER (x)	PBR (x)	EV/EBITDA (x)
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	12,805	14.5	9.5	9.5
CNBM	3323 HK Equity	2,506	27.1	6.3	6.4
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	5,911	11.4	7.7	7.2
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	2,303	8.5	10.0	10.0
TCC International	1136 HK Equity	818	-	25.8	0.32
China National Materials	1893 HK Equity	838	7.3	7.6	5.7
Asia Cement	743 HK Equity	319	-	62.2	0.23
West China Cement	2233 HK Equity	493	-	12.0	0.57
Simple Average			4.4	7.8	17.4
Weighted Average			13.3	8.4	9.6

Regional Cement Price Trends

The report includes several figures showing regional cement price trends, highlighting variations across different parts of China.
Prices in South China were more stable due to improved weather conditions, while North China remained relatively flat.

Cement Inventory Level

The national cement inventory level declined slightly to 71.25%.
Regional inventory levels varied, with South China showing improvement due to increased demand and reduced stockpiles.

Clinker Capacity Breakdown by Region (2015)

The largest regional exposure for each company is highlighted in yellow.
The table shows the distribution of clinker capacity among different regions, indicating market concentration and regional influence.

Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2015)

Anhui Conch and CNBM have significant market shares in East China.
In South Central China, Guangdong and Hunan are major contributors.
CR Cement and BBMG have notable shares in South Central and Southwest China, respectively.

Conclusion

The Chinese cement sector showed mixed performance in the first half of 2016, with South China experiencing a recovery in demand and prices, while North China saw stable prices despite lower demand. The report highlights the importance of regional weather and infrastructure projects in influencing production and pricing trends. Stocks such as BBMG and Anhui Conch performed well, while CNBM lagged due to a profit warning. Valuation metrics and market share data further illustrate the competitive landscape and potential growth areas within the sector.

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