2025-06-22-莱坊-Prime_Global_Rental_Index_Q1_2025_2页_126kb

Prime Global Rental Index 2025 Q1 Summary

Core Content

The Knight Frank Prime Global Rental Index (PGRI) provides a quarterly overview of the luxury rental market in 16 major global cities. The 2025 Q1 edition highlights a stabilization in rental growth following a period of rapid expansion, with the annual average growth rate for the 16-city basket standing at 3.0%.

Main Trends and Views

Global Rental Growth Stabilises

• The global luxury rental market experienced a period of exceptional growth, which has now stabilized.
• After a sharp slowdown in 2024, rental growth increased slightly in Q1 2025, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics.
• The annual growth rate for the 16-city basket averaged 3.0% in Q1 2025, showing a moderation from previous peaks.

Annual Growth Performance

• The rental growth rate reached a low of -2.7% in Q1 2021, reflecting the impact of the pandemic.
• There was a sharp rebound in mid-2021, peaking at +10.7% in Q1 2022, driven by the resumption of international mobility and strong demand in key cities.
• Since then, growth has gradually declined, with the annual rate slowing from 8.5% in Q4 2022 to 2.3% in Q4 2024.
• Q1 2025 showed a slight increase to 3.0%, suggesting renewed momentum in certain markets.

City-Specific Performance

• Los Angeles led with the strongest annual growth at +7.0%.
• Hong Kong and Tokyo also posted strong gains, with +6.5% and +6.1% respectively over the past 12 months.
• Monaco, Berlin, and Frankfurt showed solid growth, though Monaco saw no increase in the most recent 3-month period.
• Auckland experienced a short-term acceleration of +4.2% in the past 3 months, despite an annual decline of -0.4%.
• Toronto was the weakest performer with an annual real growth of -5.4%.
• Singapore and London remained relatively flat, though recent quarters show signs of modest recovery.

Inflation's Impact

• While nominal rental growth remains positive, real (inflation-adjusted) returns have been significantly lower.
• In 2021 and early 2022, inflation outpaced rental growth, resulting in negative real returns for landlords.
• The peak of real growth occurred in Q1 2022 at +5.4%, compared to a nominal high of +10.7%.
• By Q1 2025, real rental growth is at +1.1%, while nominal growth is at +3.0%, showing that inflation continues to affect actual returns.

Key Information

• Prime property definition: The most desirable and expensive properties in a given location, typically the top 5% by value.
• Market maturity: The report suggests that global prime rental markets are entering a more mature phase, with demand remaining strong in core hubs but returns moderating.
• Investor considerations: Investors are advised to account for inflation, currency risk, and local regulatory factors when evaluating market performance.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Fig 1: Market slowdown – PGRI annual growth, 15 city average.
• Fig 2: Knight Frank Prime Global Rental Index.
• Fig 3: Real vs Nominal annual rental growth.
• Fig 4: Real annual rental change.
• Fig 5: Four years of growth – rate of change from Q1 2021 to Q1 2025.

Contact Information

• Research Enquiries: Liam Bailey
  Email: liam.bailey@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 7919 303 148

• Press Enquiries: Emma Cotton
  Email: emma.cotton@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 7974 521802

Additional Resources

• Monthly International Residential Newsletter: Stay updated on global housing markets.
• Website: knightfrank.com/research for more detailed reports and data.