2024-10-09-莱坊-Prime_Global_Rental_Index_Q2_2024_2页_110kb

报告摘要

Knight Frank Prime Global Rental Index - 2024 Q2 Summary

Key Findings

The Prime Global Rental Index, based on data from Knight Frank, provides a quarterly snapshot of luxury rental markets in 15 key global cities. Rental growth has stabilized in the second quarter of 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the 12 months ending in June 2024. This rate remains unchanged from the first quarter and marks a halt to the prior trend of declining annual growth, which was evident since early 2022.

Quarterly Growth and Distribution

The quarterly growth rate for the period ending June 2024 is 1.1%, slightly above the long-run trend rate of 0.9%. Out of the 15 cities tracked, 80% experienced rental increases on an annual basis in Q2, maintaining the same percentage as in the previous quarter. Exceptions include Hong Kong, Toronto, and Singapore, where rental growth is pressured by new supply volumes.

Leading Markets

Sydney leads with the highest annual rental growth at 14%.
Other strong performers include Tokyo (11.0%), Berlin (6.9%), Frankfurt (5.1%), and Auckland (4.7%).
Cities with rental growth exceeding 5% over the past 12 months include Tokyo, Berlin, Frankfurt, Sydney, London, Los Angeles, Monaco, and Zurich.
Major cities like New York (57.1%) and London (56.5%) have seen the most significant increases since Q1 2021.

Trends and Dynamics

Rental performance has diverged from house price trends. In recent years, luxury rental markets saw underperformance relative to house prices through 2020-2021, followed by rental surges (up to 3.8% above long-term trends) from 2022-2023 as workers relocated post-COVID restrictions. Since then, the gap between rental growth and house prices has narrowed, with rentals now reflecting affordability constraints but still showing above-trend growth in most markets due to strong demand and supply disruptions from the COVID era.

Future Outlook

The stabilization of rental growth suggests the end of substantial upward repricing in key city markets. Rentals remain above long-run trends, supported by limited supply and strong demand, which is expected to sustain above-trend growth in the medium term, despite condominium market constraints.