2025-05-20-Jefferies-青岛啤酒（168）_2025年集团分析师会议要点_8页_110kb

报告摘要

Rating and Price Target

Market Potential and Growth

Avg. annual beer consumption in top 30 markets: 30.9 liters (China at 25 liters), indicating growth opportunity.
Gov't policies support consumption, with premiumization and mass market recovery expected.
Target steady development in beer industry via diversification and innovation.

Strategic Focus

Product mix: Tsingtao Classic, TS Draft, Wheat Beer; expand premium and super-premium products.
Accelerate development of wheat, draft, low-sugar, low-calorie beers; diversify products, packaging, and channels.
Expand nationwide rollout of Laoshan beer in mid-price segment.
Domestic strategy: Solidify Yellow River region, focus on coastal and south areas, with accelerated performance expected in South China.
International markets: Prioritize Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and West Africa; explore new customer bases (Gen Z, female, high net worth, new old age).

Mid-term Targets

Improve net margins through premiumization, product shifts, digitization, automation, and cost savings.
Better volume growth expected for 2Q25 and 2025, supported by new products (e.g., dry beer) and weather-targeted promotions.

Risks and Valuation

Risks: Covid outbreaks, raw material price increases, food safety issues.
Valuation: DCF-based with 8.94% WACC and 2% long-term growth; catalysts include earnings releases.

Analyst Comments