2025-05-20-Jefferies-华住集团（HTHT）_速评华住集团2025年第一季度业绩_7页_110kb

报告摘要

Summary of H World 1Q25 Results

Core Content

H World Group Limited (HTHT) reported its first-quarter 2025 results, showing total revenue in line with management guidance but slightly behind market consensus. The company will hold a conference call on May 20, 2025, at 8:00 PM HKT (8:00 AM EST) to discuss further details.

Key Financial Performance

Total Revenue: RMB5.4bn, up 2.2% YoY, slightly behind consensus by 1.7%.
Revenue Guidance for 2Q25: Midpoint is in line with market expectations.
Legacy Huazhu Revenue: Increased 5.5% YoY, exceeding management guidance of 3%-7%.
Legacy-DH Revenue: Declined 11% YoY.
RevPAR: Declined 3.9% YoY to RMB208, in line with estimates.
ADR: Declined 2.6% YoY, slightly better than estimated 3.8% decline.
OCC: Declined by 1 percentage point YoY to 76.2%.
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA: Reached RMB1.496bn, slightly below consensus of RMB1.6bn but in line with estimates of RMB1.5bn.
Legacy Huazhu EBITDA Contribution: RMB1.57bn.

Operational Metrics

Hotel Openings: 694 in 1Q25.
Hotel Closures: 155 in 1Q25.
Hotels in Operation: 11,560.
Hotels in Pipeline (as of Mar-25): 2,865.

Revenue Guidance for 2Q25

Total Revenue Growth: Expected to grow 1%-5% YoY.
Legacy Huazhu Revenue Growth: Expected to grow 3%-7% YoY.
Management and Franchised Revenue Growth: Expected to grow 18%-22% YoY.

Key Focus Areas in Upcoming Earnings Call

Travel Demand Post National Day Holidays: Update on recent trends.
RevPAR Outlook for 2025: Expectations and performance.
ADR and OCC Trends: Analysis and future projections.
Lower Tier Cities Penetration Strategy: Expansion plans.
Upper-Midscale Segment Developments: Progress and potential.
Hotel Openings and Closures in 2025: Forecast and impact.
Use of Cash and Shareholders' Returns: Financial strategy and returns.

Investment Recommendation

Rating: Buy.
Price Target (US$): $45.00, representing a +21% increase from current price ($37.11).
Price Target (HK$): HK$36.00, representing a +24% increase from current price (HK$29.00).

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a DCF-based approach for valuation, considering factors such as market capitalization, growth, volatility, and expected total return over the next 12 months. The price targets are derived from multiple methodologies, including analyses of market risk, revenue streams, EBITDA, and multiples like EV/EBITDA and P/E.

Key Risks

Slower-than-expected RevPAR recovery.
Slower-than-expected EBITDA margin recovery.
Changes in the macroeconomic environment.

Analyst Certification

Thomas Chong and Zoey Zong certify that all views in the report reflect their personal opinions and that their compensation is not tied to the report's recommendations.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the report.
The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered as one of many factors in investment decisions.
Jefferies is not liable for any damages or losses resulting from the use of this report.
The report is subject to various regulations and may not be suitable for all investors.

Other Important Disclosures

The report is intended for professional or institutional investors in certain jurisdictions.
It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the PRC.
Jefferies assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
No third-party content is used without prior written permission.

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