2025-06-02-Jefferies-阿杜斯家庭护理（ADUS）_ADUS非交易路演要点_医疗补助变化无害；积极的利率环境；建议买入_7页_110kb

Addus HomeCare (ADUS) Equity Research Summary

Rating & Price Target

• Rating: BUY (expected 15%+ total return)
• Price Target: $160 (up 44% from current price)
• Recent Performance: High: $136.72, Low: $88.96

Key Insights

1. Regulatory Environment:

   • Management views proposed Medicaid changes as innocuous to ADUS, with work requirements potentially boosting the part-time labor pool.
   • Immigration policy changes (immigrant workforce <600 employees) pose minimal impact.

2. Rate Environment:

   • Favorable rates remain a key tailwind through 2026, with a projected ~10% Texas rate increase starting Sep 2025.
   • Revenue growth above 3-5% for Personal Care Services (PCS) supported by labor improvements and tech initiatives.

3. Strategic Priorities:

   • Executing internal growth via tech (e.g., caregiver app, scheduling tools) to improve order fill rates to ~85%.
   • M&A focus on smaller transactions (tuck-in deals, backfill acquisitions, clinical services add-ons). High priority in states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida for expansion.

4. Valuation & Risks:

   • Valuation: 2025 EBITDA estimate applied to an average EV/EBITDA multiple.
   • Risks: Wage inflation, staffing challenges, acquisition integration issues.

Analyst Certifications

All certifications confirm unbiased views and no compensation tied directly to recommendations.

Additional Context

• Market Position: Provides personal care, hospice, and home health services to elderly, chronically ill, and disabled populations.
• Jefferies Rating Scale: BUY = 15%+ total return; HOLD = ±10%; UNDERPERFORM = ≤-10%.
• Data Validity: Includes risks (e.g., political, market changes) and conflicts of interest in analyst compensation.