ARK重磅报告：5年10倍的科技投资机会（英）-APK-2021.1-112页_7mb

2021 Big Ideas Summary

Introduction

ARK aims to identify large-scale investment opportunities by focusing on the leaders, enablers, and beneficiaries of disruptive innovation. Unlike traditional investment managers who focus on sectors, indexes, and short-term earnings, ARK emphasizes understanding the convergence, market potential, and long-term impact of innovation. This report highlights the latest developments in innovation and presents provocative research conclusions.

About ARK

ARK Investment Management LLC is a federally registered investment adviser based in New York City. It specializes in thematic investing in disruptive innovation and strives to invest in line with the pace of innovation.

Risks of Investing in Innovation

ARK acknowledges the risks and uncertainties associated with investing in innovation, including market risk, disruptive innovation risk, regulatory risk, and risks related to certain innovation areas. The content of this report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.

Core Big Ideas

01. Deep Learning

• Deep Learning as Software 2.0: Deep learning is a form of AI that uses data to write software, potentially transforming every industry.
• Market Impact: ARK estimates that deep learning could add $30 trillion to global equity market capitalization over the next 15–20 years.
• Computational Demand: Despite decreasing AI training costs, the size of AI models is growing 10x per year, leading to a significant rise in training costs.
• AI Chips Growth: The AI chip market, dominated by GPUs, is expected to scale significantly. By 2025, data center spending on AI processors could reach $22 billion.
• Conversational AI: In 2020, conversational AI systems achieved human-like accuracy in understanding and generating language, with GPT-3 being a notable example.

02. The Re-Invention of the Data Center

• Revolution in Data Centers: The data center industry is undergoing a transformation due to advancements in processors like ARM and RISC-V.
• Displacement of Intel: Intel has lost its dominance in the processor market, with competitors like TSMC and AMD leading in 2020.
• ARM and RISC-V Growth: ARM and RISC-V are expected to grow rapidly, with ARM server revenue potentially scaling 100-fold to $100 billion by 2030.
• Accelerators Dominance: Accelerators, such as GPUs, are set to become the main compute engines in data centers, with potential server spending reaching $41 billion by 2030.

03. Virtual Worlds

• Definition and Growth: Virtual worlds include video games, AR, and VR. ARK forecasts that the global virtual world market will grow at a 17% CAGR to $390 billion by 2025.
• Monetization Shift: In-game purchases now account for 75% of gaming revenue, with potential to reach 95% by 2025.
• AR and VR Potential: The AR & VR market is expected to grow at a 59% CAGR to $28 billion by 2025. ARK believes VR will achieve complete visual immersion by 2030, following the adoption curve of smartphones.

04. Digital Wallets

• Market Opportunity: Digital wallets represent a $4.6 trillion opportunity in the US by 2025, with each user potentially worth $19,900.
• Cost Efficiency: Digital wallets have significantly lower customer acquisition costs compared to traditional banks, which can be up to $1,000 per customer.
• Impact on Banking: Digital wallets are entering the unsecured lending market, threatening traditional banks and their revenue streams.
• Consumer Behavior: Digital wallet users in the US are surpassing deposit account holders at major financial institutions, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards digital financial services.

Key Takeaways

• Disruptive Innovation Focus: ARK's research emphasizes long-term opportunities created by disruptive innovation across various sectors.
• Cross-Sector Understanding: The report highlights the need for a cross-sector understanding of technology to identify investment opportunities.
• Investment Risks: Investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in innovation, including regulatory, market, and competitive risks.
• Technological Trends: Trends such as AI, data center re-invention, virtual worlds, and digital wallets are expected to have significant economic impact over the next decade.
• Future Projections: ARK provides projections for market growth and potential investment returns, although these are not guaranteed and should be considered for informational purposes only.

Summary of Opportunities

• Deep Learning: Expected to add $30 trillion to equity markets.
• Data Center: ARM and RISC-V could displace Intel's x86, with server revenue reaching $100 billion by 2030.
• Virtual Worlds: Projected to grow to $400 billion by 2025.
• Digital Wallets: Represent a $4.6 trillion opportunity in the US by 2025.

Final Note

ARK's report serves as an annual research publication to inform investors about the latest developments in innovation. It is not a recommendation for any specific investment and should be used for educational and informational purposes only.