贝恩-氢能未来繁荣发展五大要务（英文）-2021.3-12页_1mb

Five Imperatives to Thrive in a Hydrogen Future

Core Content

Hydrogen is emerging as a key player in the global energy transition, offering a viable, low-carbon solution for various industrial and transportation applications. With the global push for decarbonization, hydrogen's role is expected to expand significantly, potentially tripling demand by 2050. However, its growth trajectory and profit potential remain uncertain, requiring companies to proactively assess and prepare for its integration into their business models.

Main Points

• Hydrogen's Potential: Hydrogen can be used directly or to produce other energy carriers like ammonia and synthetic fuels. It is especially relevant for sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, such as heavy-duty transportation and industrial processes.
• Market Scenarios: Bain & Company outlines three potential hydrogen market scenarios, with the base case projecting a global market of 300 million metric tons (Mtons) by 2050, generating a profit pool of over $250 billion. The accelerated and focused uptake scenarios suggest lower demand estimates.
• Cost Competitiveness: Green hydrogen (produced from renewable sources) and blue hydrogen (from fossil fuels with carbon capture) are currently less than 1% of total production. Their competitiveness depends on technological advancements, renewable energy availability, and infrastructure development.
• Strategic Imperatives: Companies should take five no-regrets actions to position themselves for success in the hydrogen market.

Five Imperatives

1. Think Future-Back

   • Understand which applications across sectors have the highest potential for hydrogen adoption.
   • Consider cost, competitive alternatives, supply sources, enabling technologies, and regulatory policies.
   • Identify areas where hydrogen can be the single best solution for emission reduction, such as steel and cement production.

2. Choose Your Focus and Participation Model

   • Identify chokepoints in the hydrogen value chain that influence adoption speed.
   • Consider different participation models such as project consortia, securing production and system integration, joint ventures, and new business expansion.
   • Align participation with existing capabilities and future profit potential.

3. Define a Robust Yet Flexible Execution Plan

   • Develop an action plan with no-regrets moves and low-risk capital investments.
   • Monitor critical signposts such as customer demand, infrastructure development, policy changes, and technological progress.
   • Maintain flexibility and resilience in strategic plans to adapt to market changes.

4. Choose the Best Opportunities and Launch First Projects

   • Focus on initial sweet spots where hydrogen is cost-competitive or supported by government incentives.
   • Leverage early opportunities to gain experience and build capabilities.
   • Use a test-and-learn approach for longer-term applications, such as industrial decarbonization or heavy-duty transport.

5. Define the Right Operating Model

   • Ensure hydrogen initiatives are integrated into the company's broader business strategy.
   • Determine ownership and accountability for hydrogen projects and their alignment with the company’s long-term goals.
   • Secure long-term investment and assess how hydrogen efforts relate to the core business to avoid cannibalization or disruption.

Key Information

• Hydrogen Types:

  • Gray hydrogen: Produced from fossil fuels.
  • Blue hydrogen: Produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture.
  • Green hydrogen: Produced from renewable sources.

• Market Development:

  • Hydrogen demand is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on industrial and transportation sectors.
  • Government policies, subsidies, and investments are crucial in the early stages of market development.

• Strategic Actions:

  • Companies should not wait for hydrogen to become fully competitive but should start now by understanding their role in the value chain.
  • Collaboration with partners, M&A activity, and pilot projects can help build market position.

• Uncertainty and Flexibility:

  • The hydrogen market is uncertain, and strategies must remain adaptable.
  • Executives should pursue all five imperatives simultaneously to accelerate progress along the experience curve.

Conclusion

The hydrogen market presents a significant opportunity for companies willing to invest and adapt early. By understanding its potential, choosing the right participation model, and developing flexible execution plans, businesses can position themselves to thrive in a hydrogen-driven future. Public and private sector collaboration, along with supportive policies, will be essential in driving the market forward.