全球氢能回顾2024-295页_15mb

Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024 is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that tracks global hydrogen production and demand, as well as progress in infrastructure, trade, policy, investment and innovation. The report highlights the role of hydrogen in achieving international energy and climate goals and provides insights into the current state and future prospects of the hydrogen sector.

Main Points

Global Hydrogen Demand

• In 2023, global hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes (Mt), an increase of 2.5% compared to 2022.
• Demand is still concentrated in refining and the chemical sector, primarily supplied by unabated fossil fuels.
• Low-emissions hydrogen remains a small contributor, with production under 1 Mt in 2023.
• By 2030, low-emissions hydrogen production could reach 49 Mtpa, a 30% increase from the previous year’s projection.
• Electrolysis is the main driver of this growth, with 520 GW of announced electrolysis capacity.
• Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen production have doubled in the past year, reaching 3.4 Mtpa, with electrolysis and CCUS-based fossil fuels accounting for 1.9 Mtpa and 1.5 Mtpa, respectively.

Hydrogen Production

• Fossil fuel-based hydrogen with CCUS has gained traction, with FIDs in North America and Europe.
• The potential production from such projects more than doubled in the past year, from 0.6 Mtpa to 1.5 Mtpa.
• Electrolyser capacity has seen 20 GW of global FIDs, with 6.5 GW added in the last 12 months.
• China leads in electrolyser manufacturing, accounting for 60% of global capacity, and is expected to drive down costs through continued expansion.
• India and Europe are also emerging as key players, with India securing a 1.3 GW FID and Europe reaching over 2 GW of FIDs.

Investment and Innovation

• Government investment in hydrogen RD&D has been increasing since 2016, with promising results.
• Patent applications rose by 47% in 2022, indicating increased innovation and market confidence.
• The NZE Scenario predicts low-emissions hydrogen production costs to fall to USD 2–9/kg by 2030, half of current levels, with a cost gap with fossil-based hydrogen narrowing to USD 1–3/kg.
• Deployment levels in the Stated Policies Scenario would only result in a 30% cost reduction, highlighting the need for more ambitious policies.

Demand Creation

• Government policies and targets for low-emissions hydrogen demand are expected to reach 11 Mt by 2030, but current FID production and operational capacity is only 4 Mt.
• Policies such as carbon contracts for difference, aviation mandates, and shipping regulations are helping to stimulate demand.
• However, demand creation remains insufficient to meet production targets and policy expectations.

Cost and Market Challenges

• Low-emissions hydrogen will remain expensive in the short term, but cost reductions are expected.
• The cost premium for low-emissions hydrogen is modest in final products, with EVs seeing a 1% price increase when using renewable hydrogen.
• Market fragmentation persists due to uneven regulation and certification across regions.
• CertHiLAC in Latin America and mutual recognition commitments at COP 28 are steps toward global alignment.

Latin America Focus

• Latin America is well-positioned to become a major low-emissions hydrogen producer, leveraging its abundant renewable energy and decarbonised electricity mix.
• By 2030, the region could produce 7 Mtpa of hydrogen with carbon intensity below 3 kgCO₂ eq/kg H₂, meeting international standards.
• Industrial hubs in refining and ammonia production are key for scaling up.
• Infrastructure development, especially power transmission, is crucial to support future production.
• A phased approach to development, starting with smaller projects, can help mitigate risks and build experience.

Key Information

• IEA member countries include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, and others.
• Association countries include China, India, Brazil, and others.
• The report is a result of the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) Hydrogen Initiative.
• Technology innovation is making progress, especially in end-use applications.
• Public-private partnerships and cross-border cooperation are recommended to accelerate infrastructure.
• Emerging markets like Africa and Latin America have high potential for low-cost hydrogen production.

Recommendations

1. Accelerate demand creation for low-emissions hydrogen by leveraging industrial hubs and public procurement.
2. Support project developers to scale up low-emissions hydrogen production and drive cost reductions through grants, subsidies, and other policy instruments.
3. Strengthen regulation and certification of environmental attributes for low-emissions hydrogen, aligning with ISO methodology and ensuring transparency.
4. Identify opportunities to develop hydrogen infrastructure to avoid delays and support market growth.
5. Support EMDEs in expanding low-emissions hydrogen production and use through targeted financial and policy support.

Conclusion

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024 highlights significant progress in the hydrogen sector, particularly in low-emissions hydrogen production and technology innovation. However, challenges such as unclear demand signals, financing hurdles, and regulatory fragmentation still hinder full-scale deployment. Latin America presents a key opportunity for low-emissions hydrogen production, supported by renewable energy resources and strategic export potential. Stronger government action and collaboration are essential to drive demand, reduce costs, and ensure sustainable growth in the hydrogen sector.