2017年-世界发展银行全球_MSME_Finance_Gap___Assessment_of_the_Shortfalls_and_Opportunities_in_Financing_Micro_Small_and_Medium_Enterprises_in_Emerging_Markets_80页_11mb

报告摘要

MSME Finance Gap Summary

Core Content

The MSME Finance Gap report by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) assesses the shortfall in financing for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in emerging markets, highlighting the challenges and opportunities for improving access to finance.

Main Points

1. Magnitude of the Finance Gap

The study estimates that the potential demand for MSME finance in developing countries is $8.9 trillion, while the current credit supply is $3.7 trillion, resulting in a finance gap of $5.2 trillion annually.
This gap is equivalent to 19% of the GDP of the countries analyzed and represents 1.4 times the current level of MSME lending in these countries.
Additionally, there is an estimated $2.9 trillion in potential demand from informal enterprises, which is 10% of the GDP in these countries.

2. Methodology

The report introduces a new methodology that uses more diverse and better data from both the supply and demand sides to estimate the finance gap.
This method focuses on potential demand by assuming that firms in developing countries have the same willingness and ability to borrow as their counterparts in developed markets.
The methodology models potential credit demand based on industry, age, and size categories in developed economies and applies these benchmarks to developing countries.
It also estimates the shadow economy to gauge the potential demand in the informal sector.

3. Key Findings

65 million formal MSMEs across 128 countries are credit constrained, representing 40% of all formal enterprises.
The finance gap is larger than previous estimates, primarily due to methodological improvements, not necessarily an increase in the actual gap.
The methodology is robust and replicable, enabling future updates and dynamic assessments of the finance gap.

4. Implications

Public Sector: Governments and multilateral organizations must work to improve financial inclusion, regulatory frameworks, and data collection to address the gap.
Private Sector: Financial institutions, including banks and fintech companies, are encouraged to expand their lending capabilities and innovate in financial products and services.
Technology Providers: Fintechs are playing a crucial role in reaching underserved MSMEs, particularly in the informal sector, by leveraging innovative technologies.

5. Challenges

Data availability remains a major challenge, especially in the informal sector.
Assumptions are necessary due to limited data, which may affect the accuracy of estimates.
The gap is sensitive to data limitations, including missing data and outliers, which can cause fluctuations in estimates across countries.

Key Information

Data Sources

Bureau Van Dijk – Orbis data
IMF Financial Access Survey
OECD Financing SME and Entrepreneurs Scoreboard
World Bank Enterprise Survey

Methodological Innovations

Potential demand approach is used to estimate the gap, comparing current supply with estimated potential demand.
Triangulation of loan demand by comparing obtained loans with desired loans.
Analysis of the informal sector through shadow economy data.

Regional Focus

The study covers 128 developing countries and provides country-level estimates.
Informal enterprises in developing countries are estimated to have a potential demand of $2.9 trillion, which is 10% of the GDP.
Gender finance gap is also analyzed, with women-owned SMEs in Bangladesh having a $0.77 billion financing gap (60.2% unmet demand), and in Indonesia, $6 billion in potential demand from women-owned SMEs.

Conclusion

The MSME finance gap is a critical issue in emerging markets, with significant implications for economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. The new methodology provides more accurate and actionable insights into the gap, emphasizing the need for improved data collection and collaboration between public and private sectors. The potential demand approach allows for comprehensive and global assessments of the finance gap, opening up new opportunities for policy and investment decisions.