第四版新冠肺炎疫情与全球就业监测报告_24页_571kb

ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Fourth edition Summary

Core Content

The ILO Monitor provides an updated analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the global labor market, focusing on the loss of working hours, the role of testing and tracing in mitigating economic disruption, and the disproportionate effects on young people.

Main Findings

• Workplace Closures:

  • 94% of the world's workers live in countries with some form of workplace closure measures.
  • As of 17 May 2020, 20% of workers were in countries with required closures for all but essential sectors.
  • 69% were in countries with required closures for some sectors.
  • 5% were in countries with recommended closures.

• Working Hours Loss:

  • The first half of 2020 saw a significant decline in working hours, with an estimated 10.7% reduction compared to the last quarter of 2019, equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs.
  • The Americas and Europe and Central Asia experienced the highest losses (13.1% and 12.9%, respectively).
  • China had an exceptional impact on global working hours during the first quarter of 2020.

• Testing and Tracing (T&T):

  • T&T is strongly associated with lower labor market disruption.
  • Countries with high T&T intensity experienced an average loss of 7% in working hours, compared to 14% in those with low intensity.
  • T&T reduces the need for strict lockdowns and helps maintain public confidence in economic activity.
  • It also enables better workplace operations and can create temporary employment opportunities.
  • The cost of T&T is relatively low compared to the economic impact of the pandemic, with testing expenditures in some countries below 0.1% of GDP.
  • Low-income countries require financial and technical support to implement T&T effectively.

• Impact on Young People:

  • Young people (aged 15–24) are more vulnerable to the economic and social impacts of the crisis.
  • Over 178 million young workers were in hard-hit sectors at the start of the crisis.
  • Almost 77% of young workers are in informal jobs, compared to 60% of adults.
  • Youth informality rates range from 32.9% in Europe and Central Asia to 93.4% in Africa.
  • Young people are more likely to be unemployed or in underemployment, and face greater challenges in finding work.
  • Many young people are not in employment, education, or training (NEET), with 267 million globally.
  • Young women are more affected by the crisis, with higher unemployment rates and greater exposure to informal employment.

• Education and Training Disruption:

  • School and training closures have significantly disrupted education and training for young people.
  • 98% of respondents in a joint survey reported partial or complete closures of technical and vocational education institutions.
  • Over two-thirds of training has shifted to distance learning, but few low-income countries have the infrastructure to support this transition.
  • The negative impact of closures is more severe in low-income countries due to limited access to technology and digital skills.

• Economic and Social Consequences:

  • The crisis is expected to have long-term effects on the labor market and economic outcomes for young people, potentially creating a “lockdown generation.”
  • Young people are more likely to be in low-paid occupations and sectors, making them more vulnerable to income shocks.
  • The risk of scarring effects (long-term negative impacts on employment and earnings) is high, especially for those entering the labor market during the crisis.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Comprehensive Policy Frameworks:

  • Governments should implement comprehensive, inclusive, and forward-looking employment policies.
  • These should include employment and skills guarantees linked to broader stimulus and recovery packages.

• Support for Informal Sectors:

  • Policy measures should target sectors that are most affected by the crisis, including the informal economy, to promote a safe and sustainable return to work.

• Promotion of T&T:

  • Testing and tracing should be prioritized to reduce labor market disruption and support economic recovery.
  • T&T should be implemented in accordance with data privacy principles to ensure public trust and support.

• Focus on Youth:

  • Special attention should be given to young people, particularly in terms of education, employment, and social protection.
  • Efforts should be made to ensure that young people do not lose their connection to the labor market, which could hinder future reintegration.

Conclusion

The ILO Monitor highlights the severe and uneven impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the global labor market, with young people being disproportionately affected. Testing and tracing is identified as a crucial tool to mitigate labor market disruption and support economic recovery. Urgent and large-scale policy interventions are needed to address the long-term consequences for youth employment and education, particularly in low-income countries where the challenges are most pronounced.