ILO-第四版新冠肺炎疫情与全球就业监测报告（英文）-2020.5-24页_561kb

ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Fourth edition Updated estimates and analysis

Core Content Overview

The ILO Monitor provides updated estimates and analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global labor market, with a particular focus on young people. It outlines the scale of workplace closures, the loss of working hours, the role of testing and tracing in mitigating labor market disruption, and the disproportionate effects of the crisis on youth employment, education, and training.

Workplace and Business Closures

• Global Scope: 94% of the world’s workers are in countries with some form of workplace closure measures.
• Levels of Closure:
  • 20% of workers are in countries with required closures for all but essential sectors.
  • 69% are in countries with required closures for some sectors.
  • 5% are in countries with recommended closures.
• Trend: Many countries are easing these measures, allowing a gradual return to work.

Lost Working Hours and Economic Impact

• First Half of 2020: Working hours dropped by approximately 10.7% compared to the last quarter of 2019, equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs.
• Regional Disparities:
  • Americas: 13.1% decline in working hours.
  • Europe and Central Asia: 12.9% decline.
  • Other Regions: All above 9.5%.
• First Quarter Impact: 4.8% of working hours were lost, equivalent to 135 million full-time jobs.
• Key Drivers: The crisis hit labor markets harder in upper-middle- and high-income countries.

Testing and Tracing: A Key Policy Tool

• Impact on Labour Market: Testing and tracing (T&T) is strongly associated with a reduction in working hour losses, potentially by up to 50%.
• Intensity and Loss Correlation:
  • Countries with low T&T intensity experience an average 14% loss in working hours.
  • Countries with high T&T intensity see a 7% loss.
• Channels of Effect:
  • Public Health Policy Channel: Reduces reliance on strict confinement measures.
  • Economic Confidence Channel: Enhances public confidence in economic activity.
  • Workplace Operations Channel: Minimizes disruptions in workplace operations.
• Cost-Effectiveness: T&T costs are minimal compared to the economic impact of the pandemic, with testing expenditures in some countries below 0.1% of GDP.
• Policy Recommendation: Support for T&T is essential for a safe and sustainable return to work, especially in low-income countries.

Young People: Disproportionate Impact of the Crisis

• Risk of a “Lockdown Generation”: Young people (15–24 years) are more vulnerable to long-term labor market and educational consequences.
• Employment Status:
  • 178 million young workers were in hard-hit sectors at the start of the crisis.
  • 77% of young workers are in informal jobs, compared to 60% of adult workers.
• NEET Rate:
  • 267 million young people were not in employment, education, or training (NEET) before the crisis.
  • NEET rates are higher for young women, especially in lower-middle-income countries.
• Education Disruption:
  • 98% of technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions reported closures or partial closures.
  • Over half of young students expect delays or inability to complete their studies.
  • 71% of young people globally are in low-paid occupations, making them more vulnerable to income shocks.

Policy Responses and Recommendations

• Urgent Action Needed: To prevent long-term damage to young people’s education and labor market prospects.
• Comprehensive Framework: Policy interventions should be part of an inclusive and forward-looking employment policy framework.
• Employment and Skills Guarantees: Effective implementation is crucial, especially for those in informal sectors and vulnerable groups.
• Support for Informal Economy: Special attention should be given to sectors and groups that are most affected, including young people and the informal workforce.
• Inclusive Recovery: A labor-rich recovery requires monitoring the impact on enterprises and workers in key sectors.

Key Challenges and Considerations

• Informal Employment: High levels of informality among young people (up to 93.4% in Africa) increase their vulnerability to job and income losses.
• Self-Employment: Youth self-employment is widespread, especially in low-income countries, where many are working poor or informally.
• Gender Disparities: Young women are overrepresented in vulnerable sectors and face a heavier burden due to school closures and lack of childcare.
• Data Privacy: T&T programs must include privacy safeguards to ensure public trust and support.

Conclusion

The ILO Monitor highlights the severe and disproportionate impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the global labor market, especially on young people. The loss of working hours and the disruption to education and training threaten long-term employment and income prospects. Testing and tracing emerges as a critical policy tool to mitigate these effects, with significant benefits in terms of economic and social outcomes. Policy responses must be comprehensive, inclusive, and targeted to support the most vulnerable groups, including young people in informal employment and those affected by sector-specific closures.