20240522-招银国际-Await_more_details_about_Mona_5页_1mb

报告摘要

Maintain HOLD.
The management's optimistic outlook on the Mona EV and the new B-class sedan has bolstered confidence in Xpeng's substantial sales growth (expected in 4Q24, similar to 4Q23) and FY25 performance. Our forecasts have largely factored this in.
1Q24 results slightly beat expectations: Revenue up 4% (driven by higher ASP despite incentives) and Gross Profit Margin (GPM) of 12.9%, exceeding projections by 1.8ppts, primarily due to higher R&D service income from VW.
Despite beating earnings, the FY24E and FY25E net losses are revised downward by RMB0.6bn and RMB0.2bn, respectively.
Still unlikely to achieve profitability in FY25E.

Target Price: Reduced from US$10.50 to US$10.00 (14.3% upside from current price).
Sales/Revenue:
- Projected FY24E sales volume of 200,000 units (previously 220,000).
- FY25E revenue forecast reduced 6% due to lower ASPs for Mona and the new B-class sedan.
Profitability:
- FY24E GPM projected at 10.3%, FY25E at 11.4%.
- Despite projected margin expansion, SG&A costs (including separate Mona sales network) may prevent profit turnaround.

1Q24 sales volume was 21,821 units (-63.7% YoQ), lower than prior expectations, prompting a downward revision in full-year 2024 sales estimates by 20,000 units.
The high-margin X9 is expected to lead 2H24 performance, but increased Mona production may dilute earnings from higher-margin models.

Key Risks:
- Autonomous driving technology advancements relative to peers.
- Sales volume/ASP/fluctuations vs. expectations.
- Sectorwide re-rating or de-rating.
Valuation:
- Currently trading at ~1.1x 2025E P/S (lower than 1.2x for Li Auto/LI and 0.7x for BYD).

Financials:
- 2024E Revenue: 44,692 RMB mn; 2025E: 61,947 RMB mn.
- 2024E Net Loss: 6,047 RMB mn; Fully diluted Net Profit Margin expected ~9.1% in 2025.
Dividends: Not applicable (0% yield).

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