20210930-IEA-Global_Hydrogen_Review_2021_224页_13mb

Global Hydrogen Review 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Global Hydrogen Review 2021 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) outlines the current status and future prospects of hydrogen as a key component of the global transition to a sustainable energy system. It highlights the importance of hydrogen in achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and the role of international cooperation, policy support, and innovation in accelerating its deployment.

Main Views

• Hydrogen Potential: Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that can contribute significantly to decarbonisation across multiple sectors, including transport, industry, buildings, and electricity generation.
• Global Adoption: Over 17 governments have released hydrogen strategies, and more than 20 are actively working on them. Numerous companies are also exploring hydrogen business opportunities.
• Current Supply and Demand: In 2020, global hydrogen demand was around 90 Mt, with most production from fossil fuels, resulting in nearly 900 Mt of CO₂ emissions. Low-carbon hydrogen supply is still limited, with electrolysis capacity doubling in the last five years to over 300 MW by mid-2021.
• Cost Challenges: Low-carbon hydrogen is currently more expensive than fossil-based hydrogen, but cost reductions are expected through technological innovation and increased deployment.
• Climate Goals: The IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario) projects that hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels will account for 10% of total final energy consumption (TFC) by 2050, with low-carbon production being crucial to achieving this.
• Policy and Investment Needs: Significant investment is required to scale up hydrogen production and use, with an estimated USD 1 200 billion needed through 2030. Governments have committed around USD 37 billion, and the private sector has pledged an additional USD 300 billion.
• International Cooperation: The Hydrogen Initiative (H2I), launched under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), is a key platform for global collaboration in hydrogen development. It includes participation from over 20 countries and international organisations.

Key Information

Hydrogen Demand

• In 2020, hydrogen demand was 90 Mt, mainly for refining and industrial applications.
• By 2030, hydrogen demand could reach 105 Mt if all announced industrial plans are realised, still significantly below the 200 Mt required in the NZE Scenario.
• Transport is a growing area for hydrogen use, with FCEVs increasing from 7 000 in 2017 to over 43 000 by mid-2021.
• Fuel cell buses and trucks now account for 20% of FCEVs, indicating a shift towards long-distance transport.

Hydrogen Supply

• Electrolysis capacity has doubled in the last five years to 300 MW.
• 350 projects under development could increase electrolysis capacity to 54 GW by 2030, while 40 additional projects (35 GW) are in early stages.
• Fossil fuel-based hydrogen with CCUS is also growing, with 16 operational projects and 50 under development, potentially increasing production to 9 Mt by 2030.
• Low-carbon hydrogen is expected to supply 80 Mt by 2030, still well below the 800 Mt needed in the NZE Scenario.

Cost Trends

• Fossil fuel-based hydrogen is the cheapest option, costing USD 0.5 to USD 1.7 per kg.
• Electrolysis-based hydrogen costs USD 3 to USD 8 per kg, but could fall to USD 1.3 per kg by 2030 in regions with good renewable resources.
• In the long term, renewable hydrogen could be USD 1 per kg, making it competitive with fossil fuel-based hydrogen even without CCUS.

Policy Recommendations

• Develop hydrogen strategies and roadmaps with clear targets for production and demand.
• Create incentives for using low-carbon hydrogen to displace fossil fuels, including carbon pricing, auctions, mandates, and public procurement requirements.
• Mobilise investment in production, infrastructure, and manufacturing to accelerate deployment.
• Support innovation to drive down costs and improve competitiveness, with a focus on R&D and demonstration projects.
• Establish certification, standardisation, and regulation regimes to ensure hydrogen's environmental credentials and facilitate its integration into the global market.

Regional Insights

• Europe leads in electrolyser deployment, with 40% of global capacity.
• Australia is expected to catch up with Europe in a few years.
• Latin America and the Middle East are poised to deploy large amounts of capacity, especially for export.
• China and United States are increasing their ambitions, with the latter launching the Hydrogen Earthshot.

Conclusion

The Global Hydrogen Review 2021 underscores the need for faster and more decisive action to meet climate goals. It highlights the importance of international cooperation, policy support, and innovation in driving the transition to a low-carbon hydrogen economy. The report calls for a global hydrogen market and stronger coordination among initiatives to avoid duplication and ensure efficient progress.