2021-11-23-麦肯锡-净零氢能—一个关键成本竞争的能源向量（英）_56页_3mb

Hydrogen for Net-Zero Report Analysis Summary

Core Objective:
Hydrogen is identified as a critical, cost-competitive energy vector for decarbonization, capable of avoiding 80 Gt of CO₂ emissions by 2050, contributing up to 20% of emissions reductions. It plays a central role in sectors like steel, maritime, aviation, and ammonia.

Key Findings:

• Demand & Supply:

  • Clean hydrogen demand in 2050 reaches 660 Mt, supplied by a mix of renewable (60–80%) and low-carbon hydrogen.
  • 75 Mt of clean hydrogen deployment by 2030 is essential to meet net-zero targets.
  • Supply requires 3–4 TW of electrolysis capacity and significant investments in renewable energy.

• Abatement Potential:

  • Annual CO₂ abatement in 2050: 7 Gt, equivalent to 20% of 2019 global emissions.
  • Industrial uses (refining, ammonia) and mobility (heavy trucks) lead early decarbonization.

• Investment & Challenges:

  • ~USD 700 billion needed by 2030, with a USD 540 billion funding gap.
  • Short-term phase-out of grey hydrogen depends on carbon pricing (>USD 50–100/ton) and incentives.
  • Infrastructure development (pipelines, storage, refueling) is滞后, creating supply chain barriers.

Call to Action (Call to Action):
Three pillars to unlock hydrogen:

1. Demand Stimulation:政府需推动政策工具/激励机制，上游企业须提出跨行业转型目标。
2. Access Infrastructure:发展可负担的管道传输和本地分配网络。
3. Cost Reduction:通过大规模生产降低清洁氢成本，提升经济竞争力。

Key Stakeholders:

• Governments: Build carbon-pricing frameworks, support large-scale projects and cross-border collaborations.
• Industry: Invest in renewable power and low-carbon hydrogen production to meet decarbonization goals.
• Consumers: Demand hydrogen-ready products to drive market pull.

Overall Impact:
Hydrogen offers a systemic solution for hard-to-abate sectors. If deployed at scale by 2030, it can create USD 3 trillion revenue opportunities by 2050.