2023-03-08-德勤-2023年银行和资本市场展望_70页_5mb

2023 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2023 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook presents a comprehensive analysis of the global financial industry's challenges and opportunities in a period of economic uncertainty. The report outlines the evolving landscape shaped by macroeconomic shifts, technological advancements, and regulatory changes, offering insights for banks and capital markets firms to reposition themselves for long-term success.

Key Messages

• Global Economy: The global economy is entering a fragile and fractious phase, influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and tightening monetary policy. These factors are expected to create uneven impacts across regions and industries.
• Interest Rates: Policy interest rates will vary by country, with some nations (like the US) possibly pausing or reducing rates, while others (like Europe) continue to raise them. This will affect net interest income (NII) and net interest margins (NIMs).
• Banks' Resilience: Most banks are in a relatively strong position, with robust capital buffers and liquidity, which should help them withstand economic headwinds.
• Noninterest Income: Revenue from noninterest income is less predictable, with fee-based income facing headwinds due to regulatory scrutiny and economic slowdown.
• Customer Experience: Retail banks must prioritize customer experience, offering consistent, personalized, and seamless interactions across multiple channels.
• Innovation and ESG: Banks should embrace innovation and ESG initiatives to create new value and address societal challenges, such as housing inequity and climate change.
• Digital Transformation: Digital transformation is essential, with a focus on technologies like AI, machine learning, and automation to enhance operations and risk management.
• Emerging Trends: The integration of financial services into nonfinancial platforms (embedded finance), the rise of digital assets, and the potential of the metaverse are expected to redefine the industry.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Economic Outlook

• The global economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2023, with growth likely to be barely above 3%, compared to 6% in 2021.
• Russia's invasion of Ukraine, supply chain issues, inflation, and monetary tightening will create uneven impacts across regions.
• Energy shocks will affect the Eurozone more than other regions, while developing countries face challenges with food and energy shortages.
• Interest rates are expected to rise in many countries, boosting NII in the short term, but noninterest income may face pressure.

Banking Industry Performance

• There is a strong correlation between macroeconomic growth and bank profitability, especially in G7 countries and select developing economies.
• US banks may benefit from higher NIMs and loan growth due to domestic rate hikes.
• Banks with a focus on commercial and consumer loans, especially floating-rate loans, are expected to perform better in the upcoming rate cycles.

Retail Banking

• Retail banks should focus on customer experience, data-driven strategies, and personalized services to maintain trust and engagement.
• Omnichannel integration is crucial to ensure consistency across platforms, including mobile apps, chatbots, and physical branches.
• ESG initiatives are becoming a key differentiator, with banks addressing issues like housing inequity and climate change through targeted programs.
• Digital assets and embedded finance are emerging as new revenue streams, though they also bring new legal and regulatory risks.
• Customer satisfaction is increasingly linked to hands-on guidance during financial uncertainty, not just speed or convenience.

Consumer Payments

• The consumer payments industry is expected to face mixed outcomes due to higher interest rates, inflation, and low GDP growth.
• Innovation in digital payments, faster transaction systems, and cryptocurrency will drive long-term value.
• Payment fintechs may experience consolidation and rightsizing, with a shift toward profitable growth over pure revenue growth.
• Regulatory focus will be on consumer protection and digital asset standards, aiming to support innovation while ensuring safety.

Strategic Recommendations

• Banks should reassess traditional boundaries and explore new sources of value such as embedded finance, tokenized assets, and green finance.
• Cost control and workforce optimization will be essential to navigate a volatile revenue environment.
• Continuous risk monitoring and modernized systems are needed to address operational and cybersecurity risks.
• Data privacy and first-party data collection will become more important as third-party tracking declines.
• Customer-centric approaches and innovation in financial services are critical for long-term competitiveness.

Conclusion

The banking and capital markets industry is at a pivotal moment, where economic uncertainty, technological disruption, and regulatory evolution are reshaping the landscape. To thrive in this new global order, banks must rethink their strategies, embrace innovation, and prioritize customer experience. The future belongs to those who are agile, forward-thinking, and committed to long-term value creation.