德勤+2024全球银行和资本市场展望-英-64页_1mb
报告摘要
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Global Economic Outlook
- The global economy is expected to grow at 3.0% in 2024, with advanced economies growing at 1.4% and emerging economies like India at 6.3%. China faces slowdown due to weak demand and property issues. Inflation is projected at 5.2%, and central banks will fine-tune policies, with interest rates potentially dropping in Europe but staying elevated in the US. This environment tests banks' ability to generate income, manage costs, and deal with higher deposit costs.
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Banking Industry Forces
- Multiple disruptive forces reshape the industry, including higher interest rates, reduced money supply from quantitative tightening, assertive regulations, climate change, and geopolitical tensions. Technology advancements (e.g., generative AI, open data, digitization) and industry convergence are driving changes, forcing banks to adapt to new competitive dynamics and regulatory scrutiny.
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Business Model Adaptations
- Banks must prioritize noninterest income to offset declining net interest margins due to soaring deposit costs and modest loan growth. Cost discipline is critical, with investments in technology bumping up compensation expenses. Addressing loan losses through better risk management and building capital buffers will be essential, especially with new Basel III rules raising capital requirements and operational burdens.
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Technology and Innovation
- Generative AI can boost productivity in areas like risk management and advisory services, potentially increasing efficiency by 27-35% by 2026. Banks need to harness data for personalized insights, face risks from open banking and data vulnerabilities, and use automation for fraud detection and operational efficiency to stay competitive.
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Regulatory Changes
- Proposed Basel III reforms will increase capital and liquidity requirements for large banks, affecting lending, trading, and fee-based businesses. Open banking regulations promote data sharing but create regional payment blocs. The US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is scrutinizing AI use in banking, and new rules may extend to crypto and carbon markets.
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Segment-Specific Priorities
- Retail Banking: Focus on personalization via AI and data analytics to fortify customer relationships amid higher deposit costs and loan defaults. Opportunities include embedded finance and digital wallets.
- Consumer Payments: Digital payments and BNPL are democratizing credit, but fraud risks rise with synthetic identities. Banks must innovate with real-time payments and partnerships to grab revenue share.
- Wealth Management: Emphasize advice-based models and hyperpersonalization to address client needs, integrating ESG and climate risks. ESG assets could reach $50 trillion by 2025.
- Corporate and Transaction Banking: Digitize operations for efficiency in lending and cash management, mitigate CRE risks, and pursue embedded finance. T+1 settlement in the US and Canada poses operational challenges.
- Investment Banking: Shift to advisory services due to declining trading revenue, with AI enhancing productivity. European and boutique banks may gain ground amid private capital growth and regulatory pressures.
- Market Infrastructure: Compete with niche exchanges and digital assets by migrating to cloud platforms and using AI for data analytics. T+1 settlement requires system readiness to reduce risks.
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Future Outlook
- Agility, talent management, and strategic partnerships will be crucial for banks in 2024. Successful adaptation to technology, regulation, and changing customer expectations can position banks for growth, while failure may lead to consolidation or loss of market share.
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