电力年中更新2025_35页_1mb

中文总结 (Chinese Summary):

国际能源署的《电力2025年中期更新》报告指出，2025年全球电力需求预计平均增长3.3%，其次是2026年增长3.7%，尽管出现经济放缓，但增速仍高于历史平均水平。中国、美国和印度为主要增长引擎，其中中国和印度增长趋于温和，而美国和欧盟增长稳健。可再生能源（光伏和风电）预计将超越煤炭发电，市场份额从2024年的15%增至2026年的近20%，成为新增发电量主力。2025年全球燃煤发电将首次在十年内占比降至33%以下，2026年进一步收缩。天然气发电维持增长，核能和水电也有显著提升。排放方面，全球发电CO₂排放趋于稳定，预计2025年持平，2026年可能小幅下降，因可再生能源替代化石燃料。电价区域差异显著，欧盟和美国受天然气价格上涨推高批电价，而印度、澳大利亚等国则出现下降。全球电力安全需求上升，需加强电网稳定和韧性。总体上，低碳转型仍是关键，尤其是可再生能源和核电的角色日益重要。

English Summary:

The IEA's "Power2025 Mid-term Update" report indicates that global electricity demand is expected to grow by an average of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, despite global economic slowdown, setting a new record despite these upward pressures. Renewable energy is projected to surpass coal generation in electricity supply between 2025 and 2026, accounting for nearly 20% of global generation by 2026, up from 15% in 2024. Coal will dip below 33% of total generation for the first time in a decade and decline by 1.3%. Natural gas continues strong growth, while nuclear and hydropower also rise. Global CO₂ emissions from power generation will plateau in 2025 and may decline slightly in 2026 due to increased low-carbon sources. Wholesale electricity prices vary regionally, with Europe and the US facing higher costs due to natural gas, while countries like India and Australia see declines. Ensuring electricity safety and resilience has become a critical priority, given recent outages and system complexities from decarbonization efforts.