2025-05-22-Bernstein-亚洲工业技术全球自动化旁观者眼中的周期（2025年上半年）_21页_4mb

Summary

Global Automation Cycle

• Demand recovery observed in 1Q CY2025 by most companies, consistent with an uptrend.
• Companies remain optimistic despite U.S. tariffs; recovery is broad-based and not driven by specific downstream industries.
• Full capacity utilization rates for FA companies are recovering, which should support margin expansion.

China Automation Cycle

• Sentiment improved compared to 2H2024, with companies confirming strong growth and continuation of the trend.
• Recovery is broad-based, with a notable uptick in demand from the battery industry this year.
• Overall automation demand is not significantly impacted by weak solar demand due to its low contribution.

Channel Inventory Adjustments

• Channel destocking has been ongoing for approximately 2 years and is now concluding.
• Negative effects have faded, and normalized inventory levels will more accurately reflect underlying demand.
• Support for future order recovery is expected as inventory normalizes.

Impact of U.S. Tariffs

• The April tariff hike introduced uncertainty; however, impacts on automation companies remain limited.
• No significant pre-buying or order cancellations observed.
• Companies are adopting strategies such as price adjustments, supply chain diversification, and regional manufacturing to mitigate effects.
• Automation demand is delayed but not eliminated; long-term, trends like local-for-local manufacturing may boost overall demand.