英文_高盛_纸浆和纸张月度追踪报告—_2025年5月_15页_699kb

报告摘要

Goldman Sachs Pulp & Paper Monthly Report - June 2025

Overview

This monthly report analyzes key global pulp and paper sector data as of May 2025, highlighting trends in prices, inventories, and margins across major regions. The report includes charts and tables from data providers like RISI and SCi99, showing monthly comparisons (m/m) and 5-year averages.

Key Highlights

China: Pulp prices fell significantly in May, with hardwood down 13% m/m and softwood down 11% m/m. Resale prices also declined. Paper margins are below historical averages, with ivoryboard and tissue showing deficits. Port inventories increased to 2.2Mt, above historical averages.
Europe: Pulp prices were more resilient, with softwood up 1% m/m. Graphic paper and containerboard prices stable. Inventories in European ports decreased, reaching low levels.
Global Margins: In China, paper conversion margins are weak compared to 5-year averages, with some grades above average while others lag significantly.

Regional Analysis

China

Pulp inventories rose 3% m/m to 2.2Mt, exceeding historical averages.
Pulp prices saw sharp declines in May (hardwood -13% m/m; softwood -11% m/m).
Paper markets mixed: containerboard slightly up, but broader paper grades declined; margins below 5-year averages.

Europe

Pulp demand and prices steady, with softwood resale prices up 1% m/m.
Paper and containerboard prices flat, but some cartonboard grades showed gains.
Inventories low, supporting price resilience.

Data and Exhibits (Summary)

The report includes detailed charts on pulp and paper prices, inventory days of supply, shipments, and regional comparisons. Notable facts:

Exhibit comparisons show global pulp inventories fluctuating regionally.
Price differentials between China and Europe vary by pulp type and region.
Regional shipments and export data are provided for Indonesia, Brazil, and Chile.

Important Note

Goldman Sachs analysts may have conflicts of interest, and this report should be considered one factor in investment decisions. Full disclosures available in the appendix.

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