_2025_年世界经济形势与展望_最新_211页_13mb

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 Summary

Core Content

The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 report, published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) in collaboration with other UN agencies and regional commissions, provides an analysis of the global economic outlook, challenges, and opportunities for the year 2025. It highlights the ongoing recovery from the pandemic, the impact of geopolitical tensions and climate change, and the uneven distribution of economic benefits across regions and countries.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

• Global growth is expected to remain stable but subdued in 2025 and 2026, at 2.8% and 2.9% respectively, slightly below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%.
• Inflation is declining globally, from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2024, and projected to further decrease to 3.4% in 2025.
• Central banks are easing monetary policy, which is expected to boost aggregate demand.
• Persistent structural challenges such as weak investment, slow productivity growth, high debt levels, and demographic pressures are limiting growth.

Regional Economic Outlook

• United States: Expected to grow at 4.8% in 2025, with moderate growth due to weaker labor markets and public spending.
• European Union: Projected to grow at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, supported by lower inflation and easing monetary conditions.
• Japan: Forecasts a recovery from -0.2% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, but faces a policy dilemma.
• China: Expected to grow at 4.8% in 2025, with moderate growth driven by public investment and exports, but slowed by weak domestic consumption and property sector issues.
• Africa: Growth is projected to rise from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, driven by recovery in major economies like Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa.
• South Asia: Strong growth is expected at 5.7% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026, led by India's robust performance.
• Western Asia: Growth is projected to rise from 2.0% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, thanks to improved prospects in Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.
• Least Developed Countries (LDCs): Growth is expected to rise to 4.6% in 2025, but remains below the SDG target of 7.0%.
• Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Growth is projected to decline slightly to 3.4% in 2025, due to diminishing tourism recovery.
• Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs): Growth is expected to increase to 4.9% in 2025, as oil price stability limits transportation costs.

Challenges and Risks

• Persistent inflation in developing countries remains a challenge, with many experiencing double-digit inflation.
• Geopolitical tensions and conflicts are expected to exacerbate supply-side challenges and increase the risk of inflation.
• Debt sustainability remains a critical issue for many developing economies, especially LDCs.
• Climate change continues to impact economic growth, particularly through extreme weather events and disruptions to agriculture.
• High youth unemployment persists in many developing regions, including Latin America, North Africa, South Asia, and Western Asia.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• Progress on SDGs is insufficient, with many indicators still affected by pandemic-induced reversals.
• Global extreme poverty has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
• Food insecurity remains high in developing countries, with moderate or severe food insecurity affecting 28.9% of the population in 2023.
• Debt distress is a growing concern, especially for LDCs and oil-importing countries in Western Asia.

Key Information

• The report was produced by UN DESA, in partnership with UNCTAD and five regional UN commissions.
• It includes contributions from the UN World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism).
• Forecasts are based on the World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) and inputs from regional commissions.
• The report emphasizes the importance of debt management, sustainable development, and inclusive growth.
• The Pact for the Future is a key reference, calling for global financial reforms and increased support for climate-resilient development.
• The Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development is highlighted as a critical opportunity to deliver on these commitments.

Conclusion

The global economy is showing signs of recovery, but it is subdued and uneven. While developed economies are experiencing moderate growth and improved inflation, developing countries continue to face significant challenges, including high inflation, debt burdens, and climate-related disruptions. The report calls for coordinated global action to ensure that the benefits of recovery are more equitably shared and that sustainable development goals are met.