2022-01-16-联合国-2022年世界经济形势与展望报告（EN）_232页_8mb

Summary of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022

Core Content

The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022 is a comprehensive report produced by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) in partnership with several UN agencies and regional commissions, including UNCTAD, UNECA, UNECE, UNECLAC, UNESCAP, UNESCWA, and UNWTO. The report provides an analysis of the global economic situation, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the post-pandemic recovery.

Main Viewpoints

• Global Economic Recovery:

  • The global economy experienced a strong recovery in 2021 after a contraction of 3.4% in 2020.
  • Growth is expected to slow in 2022 and 2023, with projections of 4% and 3.5% respectively.
  • Despite this, global gross product in 2021 was 1.9% higher than in 2019 but still 3.3% below pre-pandemic levels.
  • The pace of recovery is uneven across countries and regions, with developing nations lagging significantly.

• Persistent Output Gaps:

  • In 2023, half of the world's economies are projected to exceed pre-pandemic output levels by at least 7%.
  • However, many developing countries and transition economies are expected to remain 1.7–5.5% below pre-pandemic output levels.
  • These output gaps are expected to worsen poverty and inequality, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa and the Caribbean.

• Inflation and Monetary Policy:

  • Global inflation reached 5.2% in 2021, significantly higher than the 10-year trend rate.
  • Inflationary pressures are particularly pronounced in the U.S., the euro area, and Latin America and the Caribbean.
  • The tightening of monetary policy and rising interest rates are expected to limit fiscal space and slow recovery efforts.

• Labour Market Recovery:

  • Employment levels are projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2022–2023.
  • Job creation has not kept up with earlier losses, disproportionately affecting women and youth.
  • Developed economies are expected to see faster recovery, while developing economies lag behind.

• Poverty and Inequality:

  • Global poverty is projected to remain at record highs, with extreme poverty decreasing slightly to 876 million in 2022 but still above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Inequality is increasing, with developing countries facing greater challenges in recovering from the pandemic.
  • The gender divide has worsened, with women experiencing sharper employment declines and facing greater barriers to re-entering the workforce.

• Fiscal and Debt Challenges:

  • Many low-income developing countries have limited fiscal space to address pandemic-related expenditures.
  • These countries are at risk of debt crises due to unsustainable debt burdens, increased borrowing, and rising debt-servicing costs.
  • There is a call for coordinated international support for debt relief and more inclusive financial policies.

• Monetary Policy Response:

  • The pandemic triggered an unprecedented monetary policy response, including large-scale asset purchase programmes (APPs) and quantitative easing.
  • Central banks in developed economies used APPs to stabilize financial markets and stimulate recovery.
  • In contrast, developing country central banks introduced APPs for the first time, but on a smaller scale and for shorter durations.

• Long-Term Impacts of APPs:

  • While APPs have been effective in the early stages of the crisis, their long-term growth impact is less clear.
  • As normal market functioning returns, the stimulus from new purchases may diminish.
  • There are concerns that prolonged ultraloose monetary policies could create macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including asset bubbles and reduced investment.

• Need for Multilateral Cooperation:

  • The report emphasizes the need for stronger multilateral cooperation to address the health and climate crises.
  • It calls for reforms in the global financial system, including tackling illicit financial flows, improving the global tax system, and encouraging private investment in developing countries.

Key Information

• Partners: UN DESA, UNCTAD, UNECA, UNECE, UNECLAC, UNESCAP, UNESCWA, and UNWTO.
• Executive Editors:
  • Liu Zhenmin (UN DESA)
  • Elliott Harris (UN Chief Economist)
  • Shantanu Mukherjee (EAPD Director)
  • Hamid Rashid (GEMB Chief)
• Core Authors: Helena Afonso, Grigor Agabekian, Ian Cox, Andrea Grozdanic, Ingo Pitterle, Julian Rodrick Slotman, Sebastian Vergara, Yasuhisa Yamamoto, Zhenqian Huang.
• Supporting Researchers: Ali Bargu, Lennart Claas Niermann, Lea Steininger, and others from various UN bodies.
• Report Editors: Gretchen Luchsinger.
• Graphic Design: Mackenzie Crone.
• Cover Design: Parvati Mcpheeters.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The report highlights the following SDGs and their relevance to the economic situation:

• Goal 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere.
• Goal 2: End hunger, achieve food security, and promote sustainable agriculture.
• Goal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.
• Goal 4: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education.
• Goal 5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls.
• Goal 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation.
• Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy.
• Goal 8: Promote sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth.
• Goal 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation.
• Goal 11: Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable.
• Goal 12: Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns.
• Goal 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
• Goal 14: Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources.
• Goal 15: Protect, restore, and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems.
• Goal 16: Promote peaceful and inclusive societies, provide access to justice, and build effective institutions.
• Goal 17: Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development.

Conclusion

The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022 underscores the ongoing challenges of global economic recovery post-pandemic, emphasizing the need for targeted and coordinated policy measures, both nationally and internationally. It highlights the importance of addressing inequality, improving access to vaccines, reforming the global financial system, and promoting sustainable and inclusive growth. The report serves as a call to action for governments, international organizations, and the private sector to work together to build a resilient, equitable, and sustainable global economy.