2025年世界经济形势与展望（英）-联合国-2025_211页_10mb

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 Summary

Core Content

The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 report, produced by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) in collaboration with UNCTAD and five regional commissions, provides an overview of the global economic landscape, highlighting both recovery and ongoing challenges. The report emphasizes the need for coordinated global action to ensure a sustainable and equitable economic future.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

• The global economy has shown resilience in 2024, avoiding broad-based contraction despite multiple shocks and inflation-driven monetary tightening.
• Growth is expected to remain stable but subdued in the short term, with a forecast of 2.8% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, slightly below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%.
• Inflation is falling, but the pace of disinflation has slowed, particularly in developed economies due to sticky prices in housing and services.
• Central banks are lowering interest rates, easing borrowing for investment, but may need to raise rates again if inflationary pressures return.

Regional Economic Outlook

United States

• Growth is expected to moderate to 1.9% in 2025 and recover slightly to 2.1% in 2026.
• The Federal Reserve is likely to remain cautious due to persistent core inflation.

European Union

• Economic growth is projected to strengthen from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
• Lower inflation and easing financing conditions are expected to support consumption and investment, though fiscal consolidation and structural challenges like aging populations may constrain growth.

Japan

• Projected to continue recovery, with growth rising from -0.2% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
• The Bank of Japan faces a policy dilemma between monetary tightening and deflationary risks.

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Georgia

• Growth is expected to moderate to 2.5% in 2025 from 4.2% in 2024, primarily due to a slowdown in Russia.
• Regional stability is threatened by the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions.

China

• Growth is projected to moderate to 4.8% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024.
• Weak consumption and property sector issues may continue to affect growth, despite strong public investment and export performance.

Africa

• Economic growth is expected to rise to 3.7% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, driven by recovery in Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa.
• Persistent challenges include high youth unemployment, debt burdens, and climate-related shocks.

South Asia

• Growth is projected to remain robust at 5.7% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026, led by India's strong performance.
• Regional risks include weaker external demand, debt challenges, and social/political unrest.

Western Asia

• Growth is expected to rise to 3.5% in 2025 from 2.0% in 2024, driven by improved prospects in Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.
• Oil-importing countries may face negative impacts due to conflicts and high inflation.

Latin America and the Caribbean

• Growth is projected to increase to 2.5% in 2025 from 1.9% in 2024.
• Improvements in private consumption and export growth are expected, but inflation remains high in some economies.

Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

• Growth is expected to rise to 4.6% in 2025 from 4.1% in 2024, still below the 7.0% SDG target.
• LDCs face risks of debt distress and require more investment for sustainable development.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

• Projected to grow at 3.4% in 2025, down from 3.8% in 2024, as tourism recovery slows.
• Climate change and extreme weather events remain key uncertainties.

Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs)

• Growth is expected to rise to 4.9% in 2025, supported by stable oil prices and reduced transportation costs.
• Persistent challenges include conflict, political instability, and climate change.

Persistent Challenges

• Global Inflation: While declining, inflation remains higher in developing economies (5.1% in 2025) than in developed ones (2.2% in 2025).
• Food Inflation: Many developing countries continue to face high food prices, exacerbated by adverse weather and La Niña effects.
• Debt Burdens: Developing countries, especially LDCs, are under significant debt pressure, limiting their ability to invest in development.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Wars, conflicts, and rising tensions are disrupting supply chains and increasing economic uncertainty.
• Climate Change: Adverse impacts on agriculture and infrastructure continue to hinder progress in vulnerable regions.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• Progress towards the SDGs remains insufficient, with many indicators still recovering from pandemic-induced setbacks.
• Global extreme poverty has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and food insecurity remains a concern in developing countries.

Key Information

• The report highlights the need for global cooperation and debt relief for developing economies.
• It underscores the importance of climate resilience, sustainable development, and inclusive growth.
• The Pact for the Future and the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development are key upcoming events for addressing global economic challenges.
• The World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) is used to generate the report's forecasts.

Conclusion

The global economy is on a path of recovery, but the pace is slow and uneven. While developed economies show signs of moderation, developing countries, especially LDCs and SIDS, continue to face significant challenges. The report calls for urgent and coordinated action to ensure a more equitable and sustainable economic future for all.