IMF-重新审视财政政策的反周期性（英）-2023.4-31页_1mb

This report examines the countercyclicality of fiscal policy using a novel dataset from 1980 to 2021 for advanced, emerging market, and low-income economies. It finds that fiscal policy tends to be more countercyclical during severe crises, especially in advanced economies, and that countercyclicality has generally increased over the last two decades for many countries. Discretionary fiscal policy shows strong countercyclical effects in advanced economies, but is often acyclical or procyclical in developing ones. Automatic stabilizers play a key role, particularly through social benefits, and fiscal stabilization operates primarily through the expenditure side.

Key determinants include financial development, larger government size, and stronger institutional quality, which enhance countercyclical effects. Countries with better financial systems and institutions are more likely to have active fiscal responses to shocks. The findings suggest that fiscal policies have become stronger during crises, supporting their use for stabilization.

The study relies on time-varying measures to address endogeneity and country-specific factors, providing robust results across various specifications. Limitations include not establishing an optimal level of countercyclicity.